Just When We Thought The Pound Was Recovering

PET · Post by **PET** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:00 pm

loverboy44 wrote:Oh, the Irish voted first no but now as the Euro zone saved their asses, quickly changed their minds.
The UK are not even able to decide.
Britannia rules the world..............if the world is only the UK.

The British people were not allowed to decide and please do not compare UK and Eire as equal economies in this context.

That is the point, you have all those minor countries with their hands out- maybe yours too?

Post by **thaiorchid** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:34 pm

PET wrote: "please do not compare UK and Eire as equal economies".
No you are right, that would not be fair to the Irish. If you compare GDP per capita, Ireland is # 4 in the world with 52.893 $, UK is # 13 with 38.850 $. By the way Thailand is ranked #105 with 3.187 $ (something we maybe should give a thought, when moaning about our hardship here)
Population below the poverty-line: Ireland 7%, UK 14% and Thailand 10 %, well in LOS case I guess, it is comparing apples and oranges, but in the case of UK and Ireland, I take we are talking the same fruit.

By the way all the countries ahead of UK are "minor" countries, among them all the Nordic countries, some members of the EU, some not. Some within the euro-zone, some not. But all with one thing in common, they are economically doing very well.
So maybe the Brits should stop playing the blame game, and take a look in the mirror.

thaiorchid

Super Joe · Post by **Super Joe** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 9:03 pm

thaiorchid wrote:If you compare GDP per capita, Ireland is # 4 in the world with 52.893 $, UK is # 13 with 38.850 $.

'Per Capita' hey .... whilst it's not what's being discussed here it would make for an amusing 'economies table', I think we'd see Luxembourg top of the list which should make it's population of 22 people (incl. steveg) and 4 dogs most proud

I think the UK has about the 2nd or 3rd largest economy in Europe but it's not really about who has the 'biggest' and all that. There's always knee-jerk reactions when the Pound drops about joining the Euro, we are in a massive recession though and no doubt things will get back to normal with the Pound strengthening. No need to panick and do anything drastic, just some pain in the mean time.

SJ

Post by **loverboy44** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 9:07 pm

Well said Thaiorchid!
The good old times are past and if you want to improve you have to analize the former mistakes.
If you don't do that nothing will change.

Post by **redzonerocker** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 11:36 pm

if the irish economy is so great, why are there so many working in the uk??

the irish voted no when things were going well, now the recession is biting, they've changed their minds

if the uk was given the chance to vote, it would be a big fat no to the euro currency, the lisbon treaty & membership of the union.
if there was a second vote, the result would be the same, NO!

perhaps then we can stop subsidising the lesser nations of europe, who don't particularly like us anyway (the feelings mutual

)
we'll also not have the euro bureaucrats telling us how we have to live our lives

Post by **Big Boy** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 11:45 pm

perhaps then we can stop subsidising the lesser nations of europe, who don't particularly like us anyway (the feelings mutual Wink)
we'll also not have the euro bureaucrats telling us how we have to live our lives

... while the rest of Europe laughs when we're ones who comply.

Super Joe · Post by **Super Joe** » Sun Oct 18, 2009 1:05 am

What is it now .... over a Twillion USD owed to Euro Zone nations by Eastern Euwope, more being proposed, hmmm doing a grand job aren't they.

How much of that is Germany's gift loverboy44 ?? 250 Bn ??

I'll fly back spwecially to vote Yesssssssss. Not.

SJ

Post by **STEVE G** » Sun Oct 18, 2009 1:34 am

People forget the advantages of the EU, I've spent most of the last twenty years working in various continental countries without having any of the sort of work permit restrictions that people face in other countries like Thailand. I've been able to work without any restrictions whatsoever and huge numbers of people benefit from this.
This is a big advantage to the UK as far more Brits are prepared to move around working in this fashion than people from many other European countries. It's very rare to meet a Frenchmam, Italian or German moving around in this fashion.
As BB says above, many of the seeming restrictions that are often highlighted by the press are actually just guidelines that the UK foolishly makes into law whilst most other countries don't bother.

Post by **loverboy44** » Sun Oct 18, 2009 5:24 pm

I do agree that not all is fantastic in the EU but have to say as well that a small economy like the UK can not survive alone.
Just think about the housing bubble.
A good friend of mine told me that he sold his house that he bought for 25000 GBP arround 23 years ago and sold it for 600000 GBP. Is this healthy? Just think of the dimensions it has in the UK. Not only that the prices will come down dramatically but that the banks have to change the rules for mortgages so that borrowers will need 25-30 % capital to get a mortgage. Because this has no tradition there (like the German Bausparkasse) it will take about 10 years for the younger ones to build up the capital to get a mortgage.
Additionally as i mentioned many times there is not enough production to produce real value. The banks have a lobby that is too big and they are doing already what they have done before and opened a huge casino.
The Euro zone countries have to follow rules if they like it or not.
Which rules does the UK has to follow. One more year of Brown?

To come back to the topic i think that the GBP will stay at arround 50 Baht for a very long time.

Have to say as well, that i am suffering with my english friends and i would like to see the GBP higher.

This MHO and not more.

Super Joe · Post by **Super Joe** » Mon Oct 19, 2009 2:58 am

loverboy44 wrote:A good friend of mine told me that he sold his house that he bought for 25000 GBP arround 23 years ago and sold it for 600000 GBP. Is this healthy? Just think of the dimensions it has in the UK. Not only that the prices will come down dramatically but that the banks have to change the rules for mortgages so that borrowers will need 25-30 % capital to get a mortgage.

Over recent months, as the UK property market has showed signs of 'some' improvement, mortgage lenders have started introducing better deals for first time buyers. There's currently about 100 different FTB mortgages available with a LTV of 90%. Then products at 85% etc. Sure this is way down on the number available a few years back and the interest rates aren't the best at 5-6%, but it shows that things will move with the times as per usual. First time buyer mortgages were up 22% year on year July '08 - July '09.

Time will tell with the exchange rate, we're all guessing, mine is it'll creep up to low 60's middle of next year and stay around that mark.

SJ

Post by **loverboy44** » Mon Oct 19, 2009 4:59 am

Well Superjoe, i respect your comments a lot and i have to say that i would like the UK Pund to improve.
Ok, if the banks do like this, exaclty the opposite is coming. That's why i said that the casino is open again.
This is not working any more and will pull the GBP down even more.
A strong country has a strong currency.
Brown is doing what everyone did in the 1920's. Keep your currenciy down and you will win. Historically it was a war of currencies until the end of WW2.
What is very much different is that the prices for raw marterials are dramatically higher (oil, gas, iron, etc) than before.
That makes the costs of working as a part of goods pretty low.
It would be like in good times giving the workers 40% more.
Anyone thought of doing this?
Of course now they can sell cheaper becaused of the weaker currency.
Only MHO!

Super Joe · Post by **Super Joe** » Mon Oct 19, 2009 6:16 am

loverboy44 wrote:Ok, if the banks do like this, exaclty the opposite is coming. That's why i said that the casino is open again.

I hardly think so, they're being much more stringent on who they lend to now. I think we can safely assume they'll be steering clear of any risky lending for a little while.

Anyway we're off topic here, enough from me, cheers.

SJ

Post by **STEVE G** » Mon Oct 19, 2009 6:20 am

Actually LB44 is hitting the nail on the head by stating that the UK needs more production to actually generate any real wealth.
At the end of the day the only thing that really matters is making something actually increase in value due to your endeavours, not just selling it for more than it's worth.

Post by **loverboy44** » Tue Oct 20, 2009 4:53 am

SJ, i don't think we're off topic at all because what we are talking about what influences the GBP/Baht rate.
Isn't this what this thread is all about?

Post by **JimmyGreaves** » Tue Oct 20, 2009 8:44 am

Back on topic, The staement about the government wanting a weak pound seems to have temporary had the opposite reaction as the pound has got back to where it was before the dip.