GBP vs THB

[PET]

If you think the Scots will vote for independence then exchange your sterling to baht tomorrow, but if you think it will be a no vote then there is no reason why the pound dollar FX rate will not rebound to 1,72, and thus a much more improved rate for your sterling/baht transaction - it is an interesting gamble ?

[pdm3547]

I did say a couple of days ago....... That the pound will slide up to referendum day...... If the vote is yes...... It will go into freefall

I'm not sure it will. Deutsche Bank are already pricing in 50% of the risk of Yes. I expect other banks are doing the same.

If the vote is No, there will be a sharp rise.

[sand_dancer]

I did say a couple of days ago....... That the pound will slide up to referendum day...... If the vote is yes...... It will go into freefall

I'm not sure it will. Deutsche Bank are already pricing in 50% of the risk of Yes. I expect other banks are doing the same.

If the vote is No, there will be a sharp rise.

pdm

Not in a position to agree or disagree regarding specific banks.....

I read reports yesterday that various Investment institutions worldwide would more than likely pull out if there was a yes vote...... It seemed like staggering amounts of money that was being talked about......

Sorry..... I dont have the links but when I come across them again I will repost.....

[pdm3547]

pdm

Not in a position to agree or disagree regarding specific banks.....

I read reports yesterday that various Investment institutions worldwide would more than likely pull out if there was a yes vote...... It seemed like staggering amounts of money that was being talked about......

Sorry..... I dont have the links but when I come across them again I will repost.....

Trying to keep this on-topic....

The risk is probably mostly built into the pound now; you'll see fluctuations over the next fortnight.

As for stocks, Scotland only accounts for 2-3% of the FTSE 350, so it won't affect the LSE too much.

[Korkenzieher]

Personal view but I think Sterling weakness lasts until after the May general election. Ironically, and somewhat contradictorily, I feel a yes vote could see the pound strengthen sharply as it sinks in that without 70 odd Labour MP's, the chance of a Miliband government shrinks from small to nothing overnight. That basically also suggests that I expect a 'No' vote from Scotland. Pity really...

[dtaai-maai]

What happened to the much-vaunted surge in the UK pound against the baht following the Scottish No vote? Is Korky ^^ right - it'll stay weak until after the election?

[HHTel]

It did jump a couple of baht immediately after the 'no' vote but then settled back a little. Still higher than immediately before the referendum. Maybe waiting for the aftermath to settle. Devolvement in all directions etc and of course the election next year.

[Spitfire]

It's more possible that with the US Fed finishing QE and then saying interest rates will slowly (and predictably) go up equals that Asian currencies will take a hit, and looks like the BoE will increase interest rates at some point soon (start of next year etc) even if to just cool the housing market by 0.25-0.5%. Mark Carney has even hinted of it going up earlier.

Asian currencies have been riding high on the economical situation in the west, and they haven't really been doing great, as it's more of a case of western countries economies doing badly......but seems like the western currencies are slowly pulling out of the trough. Most Asian currencies are pegged to the dollar so will feel it when the US Fed moves one way or another. Asian currencies have just had it sweet for the past 6-7 years......could be changing soon as eventually interest rates have to go up.

This will, ultimately, see a capital flow out of Asian countries to the US (and Europe when it gets it's act together) as it's a whole lot safer there than elsewhere if interest rates start going up......but with zero interest rates in the west then why not invest or take a chance on more volitile countries like Asian ones.

I am no expert...but this is the idea I get from investigating. Happy to be stood corrected by any finance wizards though.

[loverboy44]

Sorry, but the you called "Western Countries" are doing good at the moment.

[Ropes]

Is there anybody out there who understands the currency markets and why the Thai Baht is so strong.
I have just read the article linked below and all I read is the Thai economy is struggling. Well it maybe but it isn't against the GBP when all I read is how well the UK market is doing.
I need to transfer money but should I do it now or wait.
http://www.thefinancialist.com/the-curi ... t=34252461

[StevePIraq]

I also find it impossible to understand, the UK economy is supposed to get betting better, oil is at a long term low, half the world is in conflict, yet gold is low and Sterling is down 27% against the Thai Baht from June 2011.

During the conflict days of Iraq gold and oil was at a high, as this was the hedge against disaster. Iraq is in a worse state now than ever and gold is at a low.

It beggers belief.

[PET]

This does not answer your question about the baht but it does keep you upto date with a pretty simple understanding of what is happening and what may happen to sterling
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-l ... yds-343434

However sterling is expected to raise interest rates and that will without doubt make it appreciate against all currencies - if Labour win the election all bets are off IMO

[HHTel]

The Thai baht is linked to the dollar and is propped up by the Bank of Thailand. Thailand's reserves are slowly vanishing so how long they can carry on throwing money at the market is anyone's guess. The GBP is at a high with the Euro showing the positivity of the UK economy. Although GBP doesn't look good against the baht, it's not because the baht is strong rather than the dollar that is breaking records. 1.47 to the pound (1.46 would be a ten year low) from 1.73 not too long ago. The BoE has stated that the next move on interest rates will be up but that's not going to happen soon. Inflation is at an all time low brinking on deflation and the BoE is happy with that. Of course there's an election looming and the pound is going to go through an uncertain time until after the election.

[Pleng]

However sterling is expected to raise interest rates...

I'm sure that I've been hearing the same thing for the last 3 years!

[PeteC]

Thailand lowered interest rates yesterday and GBP is at 50.7 this morning and the USD at 33.17. I would think these numbers will go higher as the day progresses here. Holidays coming up and I think after today all markets closed until Wednesday May 6. Pete