So it would seem to be externally driven. Foreign investors and stronger outside currencies and nothing to do with internal Thai affairs
RICHARD OF LOXLEY
It’s none of my business what people say and think of me. I am what I am and do what I do. I expect nothing and accept everything. It makes life so much easier.
This thread discussed the fall in the pound against the Baht, going from about 49.5 to about 44.5 during the High tourist season. (now recovered 4 out of the 5b fall) More economically informed posters said that this was due to global forces and not to B of T manipulation. Perhaps but It will be interesting to see if the same drop occurs next winter--- I am betting that it will, best to change your money in OCT!
oakdale160 wrote:This thread discussed the fall in the pound against the Baht, going from about 49.5 to about 44.5 during the High tourist season. (now recovered 4 out of the 5b fall) More economically informed posters said that this was due to global forces and not to B of T manipulation. Perhaps but It will be interesting to see if the same drop occurs next winter--- I am betting that it will, best to change your money in OCT!
I do not think it has ever been bank of Thailand 'manipulation', if they amend iunterest rates that will have an effect ( which it has) but I would not give any thought that FX changes in certain Seasons
Courage is grace under pressure and when circumstances change you change your mind.
Thailand is officially in recession, as of this morning. UK is officially booming, house price bubble etc. The exchange rate should be a one way rocket to....49.2, maybe even 49.3.
UK Government debt and external spending are both on the rise again. Govt debt to GDP is going up again now at 90.7 when the IMF considers 85 the point of no return and you start going the way of Greece, lets hope they are wrong.
Jim wrote:Thailand is officially in recession, as of this morning. UK is officially booming, house price bubble etc. The exchange rate should be a one way rocket to....49.2, maybe even 49.3.
Jim, officially you are,correct, Thailand has slipped into a recession after two quarters of negative growth ( but still outstripping the west). When we look at the underlying figures, Thailand will still outperform most if not all western economies....where do you put your money in the mid to long term.?..........
"'The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why." - Mark Twain
IMHO, the only real place to invest at the moment is the US. The shale gas boom, coupled with significant on-shoring of previously off-shored capacity makes it the only reasonably safe bet. Even then, the underlying risk from the debt issues and some very iffy leadership on Pennsylvania Avenue certainly don't make it a slam dunk. However, a small portfolio of country specific and / or industry specific ETF's *ought* to be reasonably low risk, saving anything other than total Armageddon. Can't help but feel that even the commodities countries (Canada, Aus) have more potential downside now than upside.
Had enough of the trolls. Going to sleep. I may be some time....
Last nights' BBC report from Asia ran a piece about Thailands' economic woes - saying that although there is plenty of proposed development in the pipeline, (and presumably the private investment for that development waiting to be spent) the fault is with the Government dragging its' heels. Delays with giving the go ahead for projects.
As always the focus was on Bangkok, although as we know there are plenty of other places in the LOS which are growing.
What wasn't clear - although I maybe didn't catch all of the report - was how much of the proposed development is from foreign investors and how much is Thai.
Is Thailand deliberately using delaying tactics to put outside investors off? That shouldn't surprise us at all. Hiding behind beaurocracy saves more face than simply saying 'no - we don't want you - go away'. But if the aim is to discourage its' ASEAN neighbours where would that leave the country in the future?
There is a perception that when theAsian Economic Union is formed, it will be easier for foreign projects to be approved. Don't hold your breath. One of the principles of AEC is that the primary language for regulations will be English. All national regs affecting trade etc must be in English and the local language. Spore,Malaysia, Burma, Phillipines--no problem. VN, Loas and Cambodia are behind schedule. Thailand--what schedule?
oakdale160 wrote:There is a perception that when theAsian Economic Union is formed, it will be easier for foreign projects to be approved. Don't hold your breath. One of the principles of AEC is that the primary language for regulations will be English. All national regs affecting trade etc must be in English and the local language. Spore,Malaysia, Burma, Phillipines--no problem. VN, Loas and Cambodia are behind schedule. Thailand--what schedule?
Exactly oakdale. What schedule. So is Thailand on a path of total self destruction in Asia or just being either very astute, or very Thai?
Hard to say. Thias are the masters at passive-aggresive behaviour. What they are doing at AEC meetings, I hear, is not making a word of protest, they just ignore all the directives. In their defense their desire not to become part of 'greater Singapore" is understandable, but they don't do it by fighting the changes, they do it by ignoring them.
It could work, AEC like ASEAN could be a sham or it could be that Thai will be left behind, but then again that might suit the wealthy minority quite well.
There is a sub-plot. There is a theory that it is the Chinese S'porians, Chinese Malaysians, Chinese VNese etc who are pushing the union the hardest. There is also Sub plot 1b, which is that this is quite true and the reason they are doing it is to counteract the power of China.
StevePIraq wrote:it would be a rocket if it got back to mid 60s like it was in 2008, 49 is nothing to write home about
Is the glass half full or half empty? For the last 12 months we've been living with rates hovering between around 44-46, now we're heading towards 50. That's a significant enough increase.
If you're waiting for it to reach 60 before you're happy then.... well it will be a long time before you're happy.
UK Government debt and external spending are both on the rise again. Govt debt to GDP is going up again now at 90.7 when the IMF considers 85 the point of no return and you start going the way of Greece, lets hope they are wrong.
Booming is probably a strong word. But in the last few months I've been receiving emails from my currency exchange service such as "Sterling rallies due to [better than expected] growth figures" ans "Sterling rallies {they like using word 'rallies'} after strong unemployment data". The debt may or may not be increasing, I really haven't been following it, but the economy is growing at it's fastest rate for a long time
