Crazy 88
crazy@gianthouseswitheverythingandmoreforfree.t&c's.com
Property prices
Reality Check:
1). In UK prices have been falling at an unprecendeted rate and for an unprecented period and they are still falling - ditto the States (where it started sooner and hasn't bottomed yet or even shown a sign of doing so). Europe and the rest will follow sure as eggs are eggs - including LOS.
2). Whether developers/buildes like this or not, and whether their materials costs have increased or not is immaterial (no pun intended) - builders share prices in UK have fallen 90-95% and they are desperate to sell at almost any price just to get some cash in. Those in LOS will be the same - of that have no doubt.
Anyone thinking they can hold out for a good price will be very very lucky and far more likely to be left sitting on a fast depreciating asset. This is a global recession like we have never seen before (even the Great Depression of the 1930's wasn't as widespread) so anyone making positive noises is either on Plant Gog or has their own agenda - make your own mind up .....
1). In UK prices have been falling at an unprecendeted rate and for an unprecented period and they are still falling - ditto the States (where it started sooner and hasn't bottomed yet or even shown a sign of doing so). Europe and the rest will follow sure as eggs are eggs - including LOS.
2). Whether developers/buildes like this or not, and whether their materials costs have increased or not is immaterial (no pun intended) - builders share prices in UK have fallen 90-95% and they are desperate to sell at almost any price just to get some cash in. Those in LOS will be the same - of that have no doubt.
Anyone thinking they can hold out for a good price will be very very lucky and far more likely to be left sitting on a fast depreciating asset. This is a global recession like we have never seen before (even the Great Depression of the 1930's wasn't as widespread) so anyone making positive noises is either on Plant Gog or has their own agenda - make your own mind up .....
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Jean_d'Arc
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- Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2009 8:04 am
The housing market in HH is quite different to the one that exists in the UK. In the UK, purchasing is typically based on mortgage related credit and buyers typically borrow the maximum they can, turning cash into capital assets with the intention of reversing the process when their earning capacity declines or at retirement. The current non-availabilty of credit means that the buy-sell cycle is disrupted with sales generally limited to those forced into it or those on uncompetitive fixed rate mortgages and negative equity. Numbers that make good headlines but well short of the majority of home owners.
On the other hand, in HH the vast majority of sales are made for cash and those developers who established themselves more than three years ago are generally sitting on very nice sacks of money with no need to panic about where the next Toyota Fortuner is coming from.
Yes there are some smaller developers who have misread the market and would probably jump at the chance to get out, but they generally have uncompleted estates in less desirable areas, so buying that distressed bargain could mean that you are surrounded by discarded buiders waste for several years. And when the market does eventually pick up your chance to sell on at a profit will be lower than those who took a more long term view.
On the other hand, in HH the vast majority of sales are made for cash and those developers who established themselves more than three years ago are generally sitting on very nice sacks of money with no need to panic about where the next Toyota Fortuner is coming from.
Yes there are some smaller developers who have misread the market and would probably jump at the chance to get out, but they generally have uncompleted estates in less desirable areas, so buying that distressed bargain could mean that you are surrounded by discarded buiders waste for several years. And when the market does eventually pick up your chance to sell on at a profit will be lower than those who took a more long term view.
Unless having heaps of cash, I can't imagine anyone rushing to buy a foriegn home at the moment when everything is so uncertain.
UK Ex-pats and retirees are on the retreat from all over the world, with well documented stories from France, Spain and even from this and other LOS sites. I read of a guy who has been in LOS a long time talking of returning to 'where the pound is worth a pound'.
The value of the baht is clearly another major factor.
However, in the UK, I detect a mood shift. I believe price falls are slowing and have nearly bottomed out. I think there is a realisation that the 'profits' expected by vendors of up to 18 months ago are now not there and will take years to return to the levels they were, and that if looking to relocate or just move up in the area, that everything is relative when buying and selling. If just selling, well, you've missed the boat.
If you can get one, the mortgage offers out there are unbelievable. A local agents I know have just had their busiest month in 12 and there sales have equalled the last few months put together. At one stage they had offers on only 3 of the approx. 50 properties they were marketing - including mine!
And I've finally sold my house, now I have to decide if I still want to!
UK Ex-pats and retirees are on the retreat from all over the world, with well documented stories from France, Spain and even from this and other LOS sites. I read of a guy who has been in LOS a long time talking of returning to 'where the pound is worth a pound'.
The value of the baht is clearly another major factor.
However, in the UK, I detect a mood shift. I believe price falls are slowing and have nearly bottomed out. I think there is a realisation that the 'profits' expected by vendors of up to 18 months ago are now not there and will take years to return to the levels they were, and that if looking to relocate or just move up in the area, that everything is relative when buying and selling. If just selling, well, you've missed the boat.
If you can get one, the mortgage offers out there are unbelievable. A local agents I know have just had their busiest month in 12 and there sales have equalled the last few months put together. At one stage they had offers on only 3 of the approx. 50 properties they were marketing - including mine!
And I've finally sold my house, now I have to decide if I still want to!
Talk is cheap
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... evels.html
have a look at the above link. i have recently returned from the U.K. and imo falls have a long long way to go. i wanted to buy properties but bought nothing. i think that prices have a further fall of 25% to come.
miked
have a look at the above link. i have recently returned from the U.K. and imo falls have a long long way to go. i wanted to buy properties but bought nothing. i think that prices have a further fall of 25% to come.
miked
caller wrote:
............ or was that just another good PR story fronted by estate agents
The local Westcountry News here in the UK yesterday evening were also saying that house sales in the Westcountry have been on the up since the new yearHowever, in the UK, I detect a mood shift. I believe price falls are slowing and have nearly bottomed out. I think there is a realisation that the 'profits' expected by vendors of up to 18 months ago are now not there and will take years to return to the levels they were, and that if looking to relocate or just move up in the area, that everything is relative when buying and selling. If just selling, well, you've missed the boat.
............ or was that just another good PR story fronted by estate agents
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Points 46; Position 23 RELEGATED
i,m sure house sales probably are on the way up. sales could hardly fall any further and at some point they have to turn around. but we are talking prices and they are heading south
as long as the recession lasts prices will continue to fall and the general level of agreement as far as the U.k. is concerned is another 18 months.
miked
as long as the recession lasts prices will continue to fall and the general level of agreement as far as the U.k. is concerned is another 18 months.
miked
Property prices in the UK will not fall by another 25%, the statistics that shows big drops are because very few houses are selling and therefore repossessed properties have a bigger than normal affect on averages.
When I look at Right Move for my area the prices seems almost exactly the same as 12 months ago, people are sitting tight but don't take off the market because if they then re-advertise they will have to get a HIP.
The relation between UK market and Hua Hin is nonsense, luxury home here £100,000, same house UK at least £500,000. Of course Spain and Ireland prices will drop because they have risen ridiculously high and are now higher than in most areas of UK. (Please don't compare costas or Irish countryside with London area). Phuket prices will probably drop as they are way over the top.
Can anyone name a developing country where prices have started to drop when they are still at levels of 20% of developed countries? I think prices here will stay steady now until things pick up worldwide, then they will go up again, where would you rather live? Yes, so would most people!
I am not in the property business so have no vested interest, just still believe that property is a good investment here. I guess we all have different opinions but we should try to keep what we wish for, separate from what we really believe.
When I look at Right Move for my area the prices seems almost exactly the same as 12 months ago, people are sitting tight but don't take off the market because if they then re-advertise they will have to get a HIP.
The relation between UK market and Hua Hin is nonsense, luxury home here £100,000, same house UK at least £500,000. Of course Spain and Ireland prices will drop because they have risen ridiculously high and are now higher than in most areas of UK. (Please don't compare costas or Irish countryside with London area). Phuket prices will probably drop as they are way over the top.
Can anyone name a developing country where prices have started to drop when they are still at levels of 20% of developed countries? I think prices here will stay steady now until things pick up worldwide, then they will go up again, where would you rather live? Yes, so would most people!
I am not in the property business so have no vested interest, just still believe that property is a good investment here. I guess we all have different opinions but we should try to keep what we wish for, separate from what we really believe.
I'd be amazed if prices in the UK dropped another 25%. Forget what's reported in the press as stats play catch up as they're released a couple of months on from sales.
Prices appear to have remained static in the estate agents blurb as no-one knows what to value a property at. All the old rules have gone out the window and it really is a buyers market and offers are often way under what the sale price is.
My next door neighbours place is on the market at 50k more than mine. Structually, they're identical terraces (sorry, Edwardian period cottage) and it's lovely and anyone could walk into it and not do a thing, whereas mine needs some work, but not 50k's worth to get it in the same condition! We get on well and they are getting offers only 10k above what I have accepted. They want that 50! 
Prices appear to have remained static in the estate agents blurb as no-one knows what to value a property at. All the old rules have gone out the window and it really is a buyers market and offers are often way under what the sale price is.
My next door neighbours place is on the market at 50k more than mine. Structually, they're identical terraces (sorry, Edwardian period cottage
) and it's lovely and anyone could walk into it and not do a thing, whereas mine needs some work, but not 50k's worth to get it in the same condition! We get on well and they are getting offers only 10k above what I have accepted. They want that 50! Talk is cheap
When I look at Right Move for my area the prices seems almost exactly the same as 12 months ago, people are sitting tight but don't take off the market because if they then re-advertise they will have to get a HIP.
right move is a site that i follow. these are right moves figure not mine.
Chelmsford, Essex.
average asking price 3 bed semi £245,000
average selling price 3 bed semi £195,000
also on Bloomberg t.v. yesterday chairman of right move saying they expect 10/15% reduction in price this year.
U.k. house prices are still way over valued and imo prices have a further 25% to fall.
miked
right move is a site that i follow. these are right moves figure not mine.
Chelmsford, Essex.
average asking price 3 bed semi £245,000
average selling price 3 bed semi £195,000
also on Bloomberg t.v. yesterday chairman of right move saying they expect 10/15% reduction in price this year.
U.k. house prices are still way over valued and imo prices have a further 25% to fall.
miked
right move is a site that i follow. these are right moves figure not mine.
Chelmsford, Essex.
average asking price 3 bed semi £245,000
average selling price 3 bed semi £195,000
I think these figures confirm what I said really. Most people are leaving their properties on the market but keeping the price on hold, the few that are selling are repossessions and those that have to sell because they are moving to another area etc. They don't mind reducing because they get a cheaper price in their new region.
I watch a lot of news channels like Bloomberg and one day you get an expert saying one thing the next day something else.
Average selling price is being distorted by very low sales numbers and a few very low prices. The fact is that in the UK demand still outstrips supply and while that exists prices will not drop. My daughters and most of their friends really want to buy their own places, there are a lot of homes in the bracket they are looking for and they are happy with the price. Problem is the useless banks will not lend anyone any money, when did 1st time buyers ever manage to get 25% deposits together?
Chelmsford, Essex.
average asking price 3 bed semi £245,000
average selling price 3 bed semi £195,000
I think these figures confirm what I said really. Most people are leaving their properties on the market but keeping the price on hold, the few that are selling are repossessions and those that have to sell because they are moving to another area etc. They don't mind reducing because they get a cheaper price in their new region.
I watch a lot of news channels like Bloomberg and one day you get an expert saying one thing the next day something else.
Average selling price is being distorted by very low sales numbers and a few very low prices. The fact is that in the UK demand still outstrips supply and while that exists prices will not drop. My daughters and most of their friends really want to buy their own places, there are a lot of homes in the bracket they are looking for and they are happy with the price. Problem is the useless banks will not lend anyone any money, when did 1st time buyers ever manage to get 25% deposits together?
I agree with Martin. I have had 3 buyers pull out as they couldn't get the finance, even when as couples, both were in full time employment.
There are clearly people out there who want to buy and have the income to allow that, but not the big deposit. Northern Rock, now Govt. owned, have just announced that they are going to increase lending and it will be interesting to see what effect that has.
Another thing that riled me (amongst many) was Brown saying that the awarding of 100% mortgages was irresponsible by the banks and I think he's wrong - that's how I started. But then it was only 2.5 - 3 times income, not the silly deals the banks/lenders were offering at the end.
There are clearly people out there who want to buy and have the income to allow that, but not the big deposit. Northern Rock, now Govt. owned, have just announced that they are going to increase lending and it will be interesting to see what effect that has.
Another thing that riled me (amongst many) was Brown saying that the awarding of 100% mortgages was irresponsible by the banks and I think he's wrong - that's how I started. But then it was only 2.5 - 3 times income, not the silly deals the banks/lenders were offering at the end.
Talk is cheap
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Khundon1975
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callercaller wrote:I agree with Martin. I have had 3 buyers pull out as they couldn't get the finance, even when as couples, both were in full time employment.
There are clearly people out there who want to buy and have the income to allow that, but not the big deposit. Northern Rock, now Govt. owned, have just announced that they are going to increase lending and it will be interesting to see what effect that has.
Another thing that riled me (amongst many) was Brown saying that the awarding of 100% mortgages was irresponsible by the banks and I think he's wrong - that's how I started. But then it was only 2.5 - 3 times income, not the silly deals the banks/lenders were offering at the end.
AS you say, the mortgage companies have to get the market moving again, by lending at reasonable terms to first time buyers.
Without these people entering the house market the chain of sales upward cannot start.
I still think that some house prices (£160,000- £350,000 band) will continue to fall, untill late this year by as much as 15%, but the more expensive properties will hold their prices better.
My sister has just sold a place in the Lakes and made more than asking price, as the buyers got into a bidding war, so she was lucky.
According to her, houses in the price range her house sold for are selling at or above asking price, but lower price ranges are either not selling, or are going for up to £50k less than asking price.
Glad I don't have to worry about getting onto the property ladder.
I've lost my mind and I am making no effort to find it.
jimflan wrote,
Anyone thinking they can hold out for a good price will be very very lucky and far more likely to be left sitting on a fast depreciating asset. This is a global recession like we have never seen before (even the Great Depression of the 1930's wasn't as widespread) so anyone making positive noises is either on Plant Gog or has their own agenda - make your own mind up .....
jimflan, only just had a look at your post. thank God someone understands the situation. excellent post.
miked
Anyone thinking they can hold out for a good price will be very very lucky and far more likely to be left sitting on a fast depreciating asset. This is a global recession like we have never seen before (even the Great Depression of the 1930's wasn't as widespread) so anyone making positive noises is either on Plant Gog or has their own agenda - make your own mind up .....
jimflan, only just had a look at your post. thank God someone understands the situation. excellent post.
miked
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Khundon1975
- Rock Star
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miked wrote:jimflan wrote,
Anyone thinking they can hold out for a good price will be very very lucky and far more likely to be left sitting on a fast depreciating asset. This is a global recession like we have never seen before (even the Great Depression of the 1930's wasn't as widespread) so anyone making positive noises is either on Plant Gog or has their own agenda - make your own mind up .....
jimflan, only just had a look at your post. thank God someone understands the situation. excellent post.
miked
miked
All the house properties I have ever purchased (and I have bought a lot) have been on the understanding that they will be my home, any increase in value, though welcomed, are just a byproduct of the house market.
First and foremost a house should be looked upon as a home and not a source of profit.
Many people in UK and Thailand have treated there purchase as a business and hoped to see high profits.
All those who for bought for profit and paid a high price, are now seeing their "investment" tumble and cannot get rid of them at any cost.
Well that's business for you.
This is going to be worse than 1989/90's in UK and I see no reason why Thailand will not be affected, when farangs do not have the disposable income to spend on second homes abroad.
House prices in UK and Thailand are over inflated by many owners and only lately are they realising they are sat in a fast reducing asset as jimflan wrote.
My advice for what it's worth is, set a realistic price for your property and it will sell, if not be prepared to have it on your hands for many many years.
I've lost my mind and I am making no effort to find it.