Major Economic Issues For Thailand

[buksida]

First double-dip recession since 1998 looms
Thailand will likely be the worst economic performer in Southeast Asia this year, with economists continuing to slash the country’s growth forecast amid surging Covid-19 infections, mounting political tensions and fading hopes for a tourism revival.

The Finance Ministry on Thursday cut its 2021 gross domestic product forecast to 1.3% growth, from the 2.3% it expected in April.

With new Covid infections and deaths continually breaking records since the latest surge began in April, some economists are flagging the possibility of a technical recession in the second half of the year, or even a second straight annual contraction, something the country hasn’t seen since the Asian Financial Crisis more than two decades ago.

According to the latest weighted average of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, GDP should grow 1.8% this year. That’s particularly weak considering it’s a comparison to last year, when Thailand’s economy contracted 6.1%, the most in more than two decades.

"We see Thailand as a laggard in the region, penciling in the lowest GDP growth forecasts in Asean for both 2021 and 2022," said Charnon Boonnuch, an economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Singapore.

"Our forecast implies economic output will not return to pre-Covid levels before the third quarter of 2022, the slowest in Asean, partly reflecting the high dependence on foreign tourists," he added.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/21 ... 1998-looms

[KhunLA]

Couple things, didn't know where to stick, but this thread seems appropiate.

First, though after the fact, BOT asking backs to help, refinance if necessary, or whatever, to ease things financially to their borrowers. Always a good thing, before 'foreclosing'. News-blip, after the fact: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40005185

Another, you may or may not need to know. After August 11th, passed already, bank deposits will no longer be 'insured' for over 1 million. So if having a bit more, you may want to pop in, and spread that around to new different accounts. https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40004190

Feel free to read into both of those as you please ...

[buksida]

Headline inflation bounces after subsidies end, fuel prices surge
Thailand’s headline inflation in September edged up 1.68 per cent from a year earlier, the Commerce Ministry said Tuesday, warning of food prices disruption from floods.

The rise in September’s consumer price index (CPI) was mainly attributed to the expiration of state relief measures to cut utility bills and a hike in retail fuel prices, said Wichanun Niwatjinda, deputy director at the Trade Policy and Strategy Office.

Prior to a 0.02-per-cent dip in August, CPI persistently jumped for a fourth consecutive month. The biggest jump was a 3.41-per-cent in April in line with an uptick in food prices.

Prices of certain farm products in September, such as rice, glutinous rice, meat, fresh vegetables and fresh fruits, and eggs, fluctuated but were mostly lower than a year earlier, Wichanun said.

https://www.thaienquirer.com/33544/head ... ces-surge/

[PET]

Headline inflation bounces after subsidies end, fuel prices surge
Thailand’s headline inflation in September edged up 1.68 per cent from a year earlier, the Commerce Ministry said Tuesday, warning of food prices disruption from floods.

The rise in September’s consumer price index (CPI) was mainly attributed to the expiration of state relief measures to cut utility bills and a hike in retail fuel prices, said Wichanun Niwatjinda, deputy director at the Trade Policy and Strategy Office.

Prior to a 0.02-per-cent dip in August, CPI persistently jumped for a fourth consecutive month. The biggest jump was a 3.41-per-cent in April in line with an uptick in food prices.

Prices of certain farm products in September, such as rice, glutinous rice, meat, fresh vegetables and fresh fruits, and eggs, fluctuated but were mostly lower than a year earlier, Wichanun said.

https://www.thaienquirer.com/33544/head ... ces-surge/

---------and the over valued Thai Baht will continue to decline!!

[buksida]

Thailand’s poverty trap grows amid deadly pandemic
This past Sunday, the world marked the annual International Day for the Eradication of Poverty. It is an ongoing struggle for many of the world’s emerging and developing countries as rapid economic development must be balanced with programs that ensure no one gets left behind.

It has been 34 years since the first time the world came together to work towards poverty elimination, with the first event marked on October 17, 1987. That day, over a hundred thousand people gathered at the Human Rights and Liberties Plaza in Paris, to honor the victims of poverty, violence, hunger, and fear.

One could argue that this commemoration is especially important in 2021 because of the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. In Thailand alone, the pandemic has pushed more people underneath the poverty line than any economic crisis. The effects of lockdown and the restriction of international travel has seen a spike in unemployment, defaults, and even economic-related suicides. Thailand is also not isolated in experiencing these hardships, the same is true across much of the developing world.

https://www.thaienquirer.com/34024/thai ... -pandemic/

And the hi-sos are spending millions on plants FFS ...

[handdrummer]

Thailand’s poverty trap grows amid deadly pandemic
This past Sunday, the world marked the annual International Day for the Eradication of Poverty. It is an ongoing struggle for many of the world’s emerging and developing countries as rapid economic development must be balanced with programs that ensure no one gets left behind.

It has been 34 years since the first time the world came together to work towards poverty elimination, with the first event marked on October 17, 1987. That day, over a hundred thousand people gathered at the Human Rights and Liberties Plaza in Paris, to honor the victims of poverty, violence, hunger, and fear.

One could argue that this commemoration is especially important in 2021 because of the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. In Thailand alone, the pandemic has pushed more people underneath the poverty line than any economic crisis. The effects of lockdown and the restriction of international travel has seen a spike in unemployment, defaults, and even economic-related suicides. Thailand is also not isolated in experiencing these hardships, the same is true across much of the developing world.

https://www.thaienquirer.com/34024/thai ... -pandemic/

And the hi-sos are spending millions on plants FFS ...

The so-whats could argue that plants are good for the environment and the money they spend helps the economy. Spurious but probable.

[buksida]

House plants don't do much for the environment so money laundering is a more plausible argument.

[buksida]

Thai economy has bottomed out in third quarter, says Bank of Thailand
Thailand’s economy had bottomed out in the third quarter of 2021, the central bank said Wednesday, keeping its key interest rate unchanged to support recovery of the nation’s battered economy.

The bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) unanimously voted to hold the policy interest rate at a record low of 0.5 per cent, MPC secretary Piti Disyatat said in a statement.

The rate has been maintained for a 12th consecutive meeting, as broadly expected. It is expected to be on hold through 2022, according to economists from a Reuters poll.

The Thai economy has “entered the recovery phase following the relaxation of containment measures and the reopening of the country,” said Piti. The downside risks to the economic projection also decreased in light of accelerated vaccination.

Piti said the bank still kept its economic projection the same as last time in September at 0.7-per-cent growth for 2021 and 3.5-per-cent growth for 2022.

However, the central bank warned that ‘the fragile recovery would remain subject to uncertainties,’ while headline inflation has risen temporarily due to the global energy prices.

https://www.thaienquirer.com/34874/thai ... -thailand/

Yet the manipulated currency continues to strengthen ...

[buksida]

BoT: Recovery make take longer
Thailand's economic engines may not be as strong as before and the country's important tourism sector may take longer to normalise, the Bank of Thailand governor said on Thursday.

Factors that will be key to future growth are the digital economy and sustainability, Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput told a business seminar on the post-pandemic economy.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/22 ... ake-longer

No shit Sherlocks. The junta keeping everything closed when they're trying to attract tourists for the peak season doesn't help matters.

[Dannie Boy]

Not sure where to post this but one of the most iconic of British institutions Selfridges, is looking to be gobbled up by Thai conglomerate Central Group - more in the attached!!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59517819

[buksida]

Headline inflation rises for third month in a row
The consumer price index (CPI), an indicator of headline inflation, jumped for a third consecutive month in November, due to the rising price of fuel and commodities, the Ministry of Commerce said Friday.

One of the factors pushing the headline inflation up is the low base levels last year, said Ronnarong Phoolpipat, the Director-General at the Trade Policy and Strategy Office.

The headline inflation in November rose by 2.71 per cent year-on-year, marking the third straight month of rise since September.

Fuel prices surged following the global recovery trends as Covid-19 situation improved, while vegetable prices were still on the rise as a result of previous floods, Ronnarong told a briefing.

The average headline inflation for the first eleven months of 2021 stood at 1.15 per cent, with a forecast for the whole year in a range of 0.8 to 1.2 per cent.

https://www.thaienquirer.com/35562/head ... -in-a-row/

[Dannie Boy]

Headline inflation rises for third month in a row
The consumer price index (CPI), an indicator of headline inflation, jumped for a third consecutive month in November, due to the rising price of fuel and commodities, the Ministry of Commerce said Friday.

One of the factors pushing the headline inflation up is the low base levels last year, said Ronnarong Phoolpipat, the Director-General at the Trade Policy and Strategy Office.

The headline inflation in November rose by 2.71 per cent year-on-year, marking the third straight month of rise since September.

Fuel prices surged following the global recovery trends as Covid-19 situation improved, while vegetable prices were still on the rise as a result of previous floods, Ronnarong told a briefing.

The average headline inflation for the first eleven months of 2021 stood at 1.15 per cent, with a forecast for the whole year in a range of 0.8 to 1.2 per cent.

https://www.thaienquirer.com/35562/head ... -in-a-row/

I recently spent almost 3 months in the UK and I’ve noticed that most food items have increased by quite large amounts. I know that chicken was ridiculously cheap, and the price now is still a lot less than the UK but for Thai people on low incomes, it probably represents an increase of more than 30% in just a short period of time.

[buksida]

Even before the pandemic increases, I found food/grocery prices in the UK way cheaper than in Thailand. That may not be the case any longer though since I haven't been back for a couple of years.

Stuff is certainly going up here though.

[Big Boy]

I was told by 2 reliable sources yesterday that the price of beer will increase in the new year. Certainly, it looks like some significant increases for Guinness

[buksida]

Inflation to hit 3% in 2022
Headline inflation is expected to hit its highest level in a decade next year driven by cost-push factors including rising imported raw materials, a recovery in domestic demand, relatively high oil prices and a labour shortage.

According to Ronnarong Phoolpipat, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), Thailand's headline inflation is likely to top 3% next year from a range of 0.8% to 1.2% this year.

The projection assumes the Omicron outbreak is not serious and the country's reopening brings about recovering economic activities and tourism as hoped, along with higher domestic demand and spending.

Other factors include a dearth of labour and the impact of external factors such as higher imported raw materials like steel and fertiliser, as well as continued high oil prices, said Mr Ronnarong.

"From such cost-push factors, Thailand's headline inflation in 2022 may possibly hit 3%, a rate last seen in 2012," he said.

"Rising headline inflation may negatively affect salaried employees and farmers whose income does not come in line with rapidly rising expenses."

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/22 ... -3-in-2022

You'll notice that price increases are usually way more than the inflation rate. Our power bill is up 25% regardless of usage, and we spend on average around 20% more on groceries than a year or so ago.