Elections delayed again, and again, and again

[T.O.M.]

Almost a shame that an election has to take place.
It has been almost 5 relative good years under Prayut.....without the usual political nonsense dominating daily life.
The economy has been doing reasonably well (sure buksi with be able to find something on goggle proving me wrong..!)
I would rather live under a Thai-style military dictatorship than under most parliamentary democracies, we see around the world today.

[caller]

I would rather live under a Thai-style military dictatorship than under most parliamentary democracies, we see around the world today.

Why?

[STEVE G]

It's the nature of military dictatorships that you don't know all the bad stuff that is going on until they're gone because they don't let anyone tell you about it, perhaps ignorance is bliss to those that support it!

[Nereus]

Future Forward against outsider PM

https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politi ... recent_box

The Future Forward Party (FFP) has reiterated its position against a prime minister coming from outside of Parliament after the March 24 election.

The party remains opposed to the provision in the constitution that allows a non-MP to be a prime minister, Future Forward secretary-general Piyabutr Saengkanokkul said at a news conference late Friday.

Reading from a statement at the end of one of the most tumultuous days in recent political history, after the Thai Raksa Chart party confirmed Princess Ubolratana as its prime ministerial candidate, Mr Piyabutr said: “Political parties that adhere to democracy must strictly abide by the principle that the prime minister must be an MP.”

He also urged Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha to step down from the prime minister’s post and as a member of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) after he decided to represent the Palang Pracharath Party as its lone candidate for the premiership.

Neither Gen Prayut nor Princess Ubolratana will be standing as party-list candidates in the election.

The constitution allows the government and NCPO to remain in power — with the authority to name a 250-member Senate and exercise the near-dictatorial powers of Section 44 — until a new government is formed after the election.

Gen Prayut’s presence as the government and military junta leader represented “conflicts of interest” that stood in the way of a free and fair election, said Mr Piyabutr.

He refused to comment when asked about which party Future Forward would support between Palang Pracharath and Thak Raksa Chart if one of them emerged as a front-runner to form a government.

“We have confirmed Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit to be the candidate for prime minister,” was all he would say.

[handdrummer]

Aside from immigration laws I've never been, as far as I know, affected by any laws or doings of the Government. I wonder how much it will matter to retirees who is elected prime minister? Speculation not allowed.

[caller]

Aside from immigration laws I've never been, as far as I know, affected by any laws or doings of the Government. I wonder how much it will matter to retirees who is elected prime minister?

Partly, it all depends on your own moral compass.

Secondly, when the general is returned, he will be able to implement the things he couldn't as a junta leader, as he will now have political 'legitimacy'. I would imagine Thailand will be getting a mix of Burmese militarism and Hun Sen.

[handdrummer]

Aside from immigration laws I've never been, as far as I know, affected by any laws or doings of the Government. I wonder how much it will matter to retirees who is elected prime minister?

Partly, it all depends on your own moral compass.

Secondly, when the general is returned, he will be able to implement the things he couldn't as a junta leader, as he will now have political 'legitimacy'. I would imagine Thailand will be getting a mix of Burmese militarism and Hun Sen.

I don't understand the "moral compass" part. Yes, I know what that is. I don't break any laws that I'm aware of and my life has always gone on regardless of who is the country's leader & I've lived in 8 countries.

If Thailand goes the way of Burma and Cambodia that will be a different story and I imagine most if not all of us would have to leave. Even the way of Xi could be unpleasant. This Forum would certainly disappear.

[oakdale160]

Well I guess its back on schedule after the latest hiccup seems to have come and gone.

[STEVE G]

Well I guess its back on schedule after the latest hiccup seems to have come and gone.

Yes, the Election Commission will get back to their usual role of banning anyone who actually wins an election, or even might!

[buksida]

Thailand takes the term 'general election' at face value - you will elect a general.

[oakdale160]

And meanwhile in the UAE the plotting continues

[Nereus]

I put this here just as a record to look back at after the "elections":
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
In cosmic chaos, Thai politicians turn to clairvoyants

https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/world/ ... recent_box

A hand-drawn map of constellations and planetary orbits shows Thailand in the throes of a "gateway" year of change, says astrologer Pinyo Pongcharoen -- one of a legion of fortune tellers sought out by politicians in chaotic and unpredictable times.

"The stars are all in place," the president of Thailand's International Astrological Association told AFP.
"There will be a big change, a big confrontation, a big negotiation."

His forecast might lack precision but it carries weight for Thais, who have long turned to fortune tellers for a hint of what lies in store at school, in business, love and politics.

And politics is currently dominating conversations, following a series of dramatic events which have lit up the political landscape ahead of elections set for March 24.

Thailand's King Maha Vajiralongkorn on Friday slapped down the unprecedented prime ministerial candidacy of his sister Princess Ubolratana, which brought the revered monarchy into frontline politics, as a "highly inappropriate" move.
She was proposed for premier by the Thai Raksa Chart party, which is aligned with the powerful Shinawatra clan and is now facing dissolution for the bold, perhaps foolish, move.

The upheaval triggered rumours of a possible counter-coup to oust junta leader Prayut Chan-o-cha, speculation he denies.

Mr Pinyo -- who has read the fortune of a former prime minister, though he declined to say who -- refused to be drawn into unpicking what it all means, saying only that there will be a showdown between "liberal and conservative" forces.

"It's a fight between the people who have a new thinking and the people who keep the old way of thinking," he said cryptically.

- Aligning with the cosmos -

The country's history is steeped in astrology, with every twist in the country's volatile history of coups, protests and short-lived civilian governments informed by the stars, said Edoardo Siani, a cultural anthropologist of Thailand at Kyoto University.

It is common for Thais to discern meaning in everyday symbolism and they are conscious of auspicious dates, places and colours.

Politicians capitalise on this fluency, he added.

Thai Raksa Chart, the party which proposed the princess' ill-fated bid for prime minister, announced her candidacy at 9.10am last Friday – with the timing rumoured to symbolise her connection with her father, the late King Rama IX, and her brother, current King Rama X.

"It is about aligning the individual with the greater cosmos," said Mr Siani.

Uncertainty in politics feeds the fortune-telling industry as people are unable to discuss rival sides openly because of legal controls and the country's sharp divisions.
"You don't know what's going to happen, so you become interested in prophecies and it gives you answers that you can't even ask about," Mr Siani said.

- 'Their time is up' -

While astrology is often favoured by the elite, tarot cards have gained popularity among ordinary people.
They provide more definitive answers than complex astrological maps.

Dao Dao, a fortune teller in a central Bangkok district, flips over a tarot card featuring "The Wheel of Fortune".
"Yes, (junta leader Prayut) will come back as prime minister," she said.

Her premonition of Gen Prayut's evolution from junta chief to civilian leader matches the prediction of Warin Buaviratlerd, a renowned army astrologer who has known the gruff former general for 20 years.

"The group of people who are serving the country now will come back and serve again," Mr Warin told AFP, adding that he believes the Shinawatra clan is done.

Thai politics has revolved around billionaire ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra for almost two decades, and his party and its proxies have won every election since 2001.

But analysts say the recent upheaval linked to Princess Ubolratana's fleeting tilt for office has seriously undercut Thaksin's position and if Thai Raksa Chart is dissolved, it would deal a serious blow to his affiliated parties' electoral chances.
"Their time is up," said the astrologer.

- 'Results will stun us' -

Fongsanan Chamornchan, a former journalist who switched to fortune-telling a year ago, is less certain about Thailand's political fate.

"Many" politicians have sought her out because of her previous job, she said, and the number one question asked is whether elections will be held this year.
Despite recent rumours of an impending coup -- Thai generals have a penchant for coups and have grabbed power 12 times since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932 -- Ms Fongsanan remained steadfast.

"No coup," she told AFP. "We are headed to an election and coronation."
But the presence of "Uranus in Aries" means the details of who will come out on top remain in flux.
"I can't dare to predict who will be prime minister.... All I know is that the results of the election will stun us."

[Nereus]

This may be better in the high Thai Baht thread:
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Foreign investors flee Thai shares ahead of March election

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/fi ... recent_box

Foreign investors have dumped 10.5 billion baht in Thai equities in seven straight sessions, the longest losing streak in more than two months, as worries about potential political instability grip the nation ahead of elections in March.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand main index has lost about 175 billion baht of its market value since the surprise, short-lived entry of the sister of His Majesty the King into politics threw the election into turmoil.

On Feb 8, Princess Ubolratana stunned the nation with her candidacy for prime minister for the Thak Raksa Chart Party that is loyal to ousted ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra.
But the King blocked her bid, with the party facing dissolution ahead of the election on March 24, the first since a 2014 military coup.

Since then, foreign investors have sold a net 10.5 billion baht of Thai shares. In November, foreign net selling was 9.3 billion baht over an eight-session period.

Until recently, overseas inventors had bought a net 8.3 billion baht of Thai shares between Jan 1 and Feb 7.
After Feb 7, things turned down with foreign sales of 2.3 billion baht for the year-to-date. In 2018, foreign net selling was nearly 300 billion baht.

Investors may return after the election, fund managers say.

"That's because of political uncertainty. The political heat is still here," said Prapas Tonpibulsak, chief investment officer of Talis Asset Management.
"Some investors may want to sell some and are in no rush to come back until there is clarity after the poll," he said.

Thai stocks are still a good bet because economic fundamentals remain solid, with growth of more than 3% expected this year, said Saharat Chudsuwan, head of marketing and wealth advisory of TISCO Asset Management.

"This is just political noise and it will go away," he said.

The key risk for the economy is the possibility of violent protests ahead of the elections, said Capital Economics.

"Another outbreak of protests and violent conflict, would deal a significant blow to the economy," it said, estimating that the last outbreak of violence in 2013-2014 knocked around 0.7 percentage point off economic growth.

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy grew slightly faster than expected in the fourth quarter, with 2018 growth of 4.1%-- the fastest pace in six years.

But growth this year could be hurt by politics.
"We maintain our forecast of below-potential GDP growth of 3.7% in 2019, with downside risks increasing from export slowdown and political uncertainty," said Charnon Boonnuch, economist of Nomura in Singapore.

[T.O.M.]

Quote from article above:

"The Stock Exchange of Thailand main index has lost about 175 billion baht of its market value since the surprise, short-lived entry of the sister of His Majesty the King into politics threw the election into turmoil."

Absolutely nonsense....Index the 7/2-2019 was 1,651.88 and after today it was 1,645.38.....which equals a fall of 0.36% over more than 10 trading days. So where BP have got their 175 billion from doesn't really matter, but it is fake news.
Yes foreign investors are net sellers at the moment, mainly because they are afraid of a correction in the value of the baht.