hahuahin
Thailand general election fundamentally flawed: Human Rights Watch
Re: Upcoming general election fundamentally flawed: Human Rights Watch
Oh..how could it happen..Thai-Chinese elite drop out - Thai Chines elite take over
hahuahin
hahuahin
Re: Upcoming general election fundamentally flawed: Human Rights Watch
Srettha, of PT, has urged other parties to vote for Pita as PM, thus by-passing the senate. Its an interesting one, as it puts the onus on these other parties, 'do you support democracy or not'. And all of Thailand will listen to their answer and not forget.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/po ... pita-as-pm
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/po ... pita-as-pm
Talk is cheap
Re: Upcoming general election fundamentally flawed: Human Rights Watch
Sorry, should be 67 senators and/or other votes. Got a bit lost.HHTel wrote:AFAIK the coalition have 309 seats. 376 are needed so 34 senators, although good, isn't enough.
Re: Upcoming general election fundamentally flawed: Human Rights Watch
Ah, so this is an interesting tactic. Perhaps what Pita has had in mind. It will be interesting to see how many put their vote where their mouth has been.
Re: Upcoming general election fundamentally flawed: Human Rights Watch
DREAMING !!!!! It would be a NIGHTMARE
Courage is grace under pressure and when circumstances change you change your mind.
Re: Upcoming general election fundamentally flawed: Human Rights Watch
Thailand opposition looks to form 8-party coalition
Move Forward Party (MFP) leader Pita Limjaroenrat on Thursday formally announced a plan for a coalition government consisting of 313 MPs from eight political parties, with himself as prime minister.
But signs are already emerging of possible tension between the two largest parties in the alliance: Move Forward and Pheu Thai.
Pheu Thai leader Cholnan Srikaew said his party had some reservations about the draft memorandum of understanding (MoU) that all eight parties hope to sign on May 22. Move Forward’s plan to amend the lese-majeste law could also be a point of friction, he said.
“I have seen the government coalition MoU. The main party drafted it. The Pheu Thai Party is seriously against some points in it,” Dr Cholnan said after a press conference held by the eight parties at the Okura Prestige Bangkok Hotel.
Move Forward and Pheu Thai together would have 293 seats in the House of Representatives, based on the unofficial results of Sunday’s election. The remaining 20 seats are divided among six other parties: Prachachat, Thai Sang Thai, Seri Ruam Thai (Thai Liberal), Fair, Plung Sungkom Mai (New Force) and Peu Thai Rumphlang.
Mr Pita said all the coalition parties had agreed to support him as the next prime minister as MFP won the most House seats.
“I would like to thank the people for all the votes they have given us. They represent hope and a desire for change. The new government will work with honesty and be the government of all Thai people,” he said.
Because it won 11 more seats than Pheu Thai, Move Forward will be the lead party in the coalition. It also created the first draft of the MoU, but Mr Pita has stressed that the final document will be produced by a committee in which all eight parties are represented.
The MoU will outline guidelines for the parties’ collaboration and address national, political, economic and social crises, he said.
The final details will be announced on May 22, which marks the ninth anniversary of the 2014 military coup d’état staged by Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, who is still the caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed.
The eight parties will establish a working group to facilitate the transition from the caretaker government to the new administration. It will also consider the possibility of other political parties joining the coalition.
Mr Pita said that 313 MPs should be enough for the formation of the new government, while expressing his confidence that parliament will vote in favour of him becoming the country’s 30th prime minister.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/po ... ition-plan
Move Forward Party (MFP) leader Pita Limjaroenrat on Thursday formally announced a plan for a coalition government consisting of 313 MPs from eight political parties, with himself as prime minister.
But signs are already emerging of possible tension between the two largest parties in the alliance: Move Forward and Pheu Thai.
Pheu Thai leader Cholnan Srikaew said his party had some reservations about the draft memorandum of understanding (MoU) that all eight parties hope to sign on May 22. Move Forward’s plan to amend the lese-majeste law could also be a point of friction, he said.
“I have seen the government coalition MoU. The main party drafted it. The Pheu Thai Party is seriously against some points in it,” Dr Cholnan said after a press conference held by the eight parties at the Okura Prestige Bangkok Hotel.
Move Forward and Pheu Thai together would have 293 seats in the House of Representatives, based on the unofficial results of Sunday’s election. The remaining 20 seats are divided among six other parties: Prachachat, Thai Sang Thai, Seri Ruam Thai (Thai Liberal), Fair, Plung Sungkom Mai (New Force) and Peu Thai Rumphlang.
Mr Pita said all the coalition parties had agreed to support him as the next prime minister as MFP won the most House seats.
“I would like to thank the people for all the votes they have given us. They represent hope and a desire for change. The new government will work with honesty and be the government of all Thai people,” he said.
Because it won 11 more seats than Pheu Thai, Move Forward will be the lead party in the coalition. It also created the first draft of the MoU, but Mr Pita has stressed that the final document will be produced by a committee in which all eight parties are represented.
The MoU will outline guidelines for the parties’ collaboration and address national, political, economic and social crises, he said.
The final details will be announced on May 22, which marks the ninth anniversary of the 2014 military coup d’état staged by Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, who is still the caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed.
The eight parties will establish a working group to facilitate the transition from the caretaker government to the new administration. It will also consider the possibility of other political parties joining the coalition.
Mr Pita said that 313 MPs should be enough for the formation of the new government, while expressing his confidence that parliament will vote in favour of him becoming the country’s 30th prime minister.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/po ... ition-plan
Who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed? - Hunter S Thompson
Re: Upcoming general election fundamentally flawed: Human Rights Watch
Conflict or coup, warns academic
Conflict and another coup could occur if the Move Forward Party (MFP) fails to form a coalition government, an academic has warned.
The military has, however, given assurances that it will do its best to maintain order and ruled out the possibility of another coup.
Writing on Facebook on Saturday, Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, programme director for politics and development strategy at the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida), presented possible scenarios for what would happen if the MFP is able to form a government and what would happen if the party fails to do so.
The MFP-led coalition, which now has a combined 313 MPs, will form the new government if it can secure the support of at least 66 senators, he said.
He said the MFP has the legitimacy to form a government and that its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, stands out among the other prime ministerial candidates as he has the backing of voters and has gained international recognition.
"With the MFP leading the government, politics will stabilise while democracy will thrive and the economy will go ahead. Thailand will be held in high esteem by other countries," he said.
But if the MFP fails to form a coalition government because the senators refuse to vote for Mr Pita to be prime minister, the country will lack stability as it will be rocked by division and conflict, leading to an economic downturn and a bad image in the eyes of other countries, Mr Phichai said.
If the Pheu Thai Party becomes the leader in forming a government and nominates its prime ministerial candidate, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, for a PM vote in parliament, there is no guarantee the senators will vote for her, he said.
Moreover, Pheu Thai may not be able to bring the Palang Pracharath and Bhumjaithai parties into its coalition, because it will face resistance from red-shirt groups, he said.
Division and conflict could trigger a coup, allowing the military to step in and assume power, sending the country into a downward spiral, he said.
Yutthaporn Issarachai, a political science lecturer at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, said the MFP's supporters, particularly those on social media, wield a great deal of influence on the party's decision making.
"The MFP has to bow to the demands of its own fandom. On the issue relating to Section 112 [the lese majeste law], if the MFP insists on revising the law, it must confront the senators and parties that oppose the bid.
"But if the party backs down from the move, it will confront its own fandom instead online," Mr Yutthaporn said.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/po ... s-academic
Insurmountable Challenges Ahead For A New Government
https://www.eurasiareview.com/21052023- ... -analysis/
Conflict and another coup could occur if the Move Forward Party (MFP) fails to form a coalition government, an academic has warned.
The military has, however, given assurances that it will do its best to maintain order and ruled out the possibility of another coup.
Writing on Facebook on Saturday, Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, programme director for politics and development strategy at the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida), presented possible scenarios for what would happen if the MFP is able to form a government and what would happen if the party fails to do so.
The MFP-led coalition, which now has a combined 313 MPs, will form the new government if it can secure the support of at least 66 senators, he said.
He said the MFP has the legitimacy to form a government and that its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, stands out among the other prime ministerial candidates as he has the backing of voters and has gained international recognition.
"With the MFP leading the government, politics will stabilise while democracy will thrive and the economy will go ahead. Thailand will be held in high esteem by other countries," he said.
But if the MFP fails to form a coalition government because the senators refuse to vote for Mr Pita to be prime minister, the country will lack stability as it will be rocked by division and conflict, leading to an economic downturn and a bad image in the eyes of other countries, Mr Phichai said.
If the Pheu Thai Party becomes the leader in forming a government and nominates its prime ministerial candidate, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, for a PM vote in parliament, there is no guarantee the senators will vote for her, he said.
Moreover, Pheu Thai may not be able to bring the Palang Pracharath and Bhumjaithai parties into its coalition, because it will face resistance from red-shirt groups, he said.
Division and conflict could trigger a coup, allowing the military to step in and assume power, sending the country into a downward spiral, he said.
Yutthaporn Issarachai, a political science lecturer at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, said the MFP's supporters, particularly those on social media, wield a great deal of influence on the party's decision making.
"The MFP has to bow to the demands of its own fandom. On the issue relating to Section 112 [the lese majeste law], if the MFP insists on revising the law, it must confront the senators and parties that oppose the bid.
"But if the party backs down from the move, it will confront its own fandom instead online," Mr Yutthaporn said.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/po ... s-academic
Insurmountable Challenges Ahead For A New Government
https://www.eurasiareview.com/21052023- ... -analysis/
Who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed? - Hunter S Thompson
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berlinmichael
- Specialist
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Re: Upcoming general election fundamentally flawed: Human Rights Watch
I just can't see the current regime walking away. Since 2014 they have created a system designed to eliminate the chance of change. I suspect some murky dealings ahead. If the coalition fails to become the next government it will be a very sad day for democracy as well as the Thai people....
Re: Upcoming general election fundamentally flawed: Human Rights Watch
Thai Enquirer reported this earlier. If true, not sure how realistic or feasible it would be, or whether Pheu Thai supporters would accept it?
https://www.thaienquirer.com/wp-content ... 2-2023.pdf
There are reports of a coup in Ruam Thai Saang Chart party, which was the party that
nominated 2014 coup leader and caretaker Prime Minister – Prayut Chan-o-cha, as the
candidate for Prime Minister in the May 14th, 2023, elections.
The reports suggest that Akanat Prompan (nickname – Khing) is set to become
the party’s Secretary General replacing the incumbent Pirapan Salirathavibhanga.
Even Gen. Prayut is expected to announce his retirement from the party.
Reports that the infamous man for borrowing multi-million dollar worth watches from
dead friends – Prawit Wongsuwon, is also looking to ‘retire’ from politics.
Such a move would push the watchman Prawit to be in the background and put
his 41 MPs up for grabs that could possibly go to Pheu Thai party to form an
alternative government.
Pheu Thai has 141 MPs + 41 = 182 MPs
Add Bhumjai Thai party’s 70 MPs and the magic number of 252 is achieved.
Such as scenario would also give more than 100 votes of the senate to vote in the
Prime Minister
https://www.thaienquirer.com/wp-content ... 2-2023.pdf
There are reports of a coup in Ruam Thai Saang Chart party, which was the party that
nominated 2014 coup leader and caretaker Prime Minister – Prayut Chan-o-cha, as the
candidate for Prime Minister in the May 14th, 2023, elections.
The reports suggest that Akanat Prompan (nickname – Khing) is set to become
the party’s Secretary General replacing the incumbent Pirapan Salirathavibhanga.
Even Gen. Prayut is expected to announce his retirement from the party.
Reports that the infamous man for borrowing multi-million dollar worth watches from
dead friends – Prawit Wongsuwon, is also looking to ‘retire’ from politics.
Such a move would push the watchman Prawit to be in the background and put
his 41 MPs up for grabs that could possibly go to Pheu Thai party to form an
alternative government.
Pheu Thai has 141 MPs + 41 = 182 MPs
Add Bhumjai Thai party’s 70 MPs and the magic number of 252 is achieved.
Such as scenario would also give more than 100 votes of the senate to vote in the
Prime Minister
Talk is cheap
Re: Upcoming general election fundamentally flawed: Human Rights Watch
^^ The signing of the MoU between the putative government parties is taking place now, live on TV.
But there are still "legal" moves to get Pita and maybe the MFP banned.
But there are still "legal" moves to get Pita and maybe the MFP banned.
Re: Upcoming general election fundamentally flawed: Human Rights Watch
Bans, betrayals and stalemates: How Thailand’s old guard could respond to election results
Thailand’s preliminary election results was a triumph for the progressive Move Forward party but its reforms are set to threaten conservative forces that may move to prevent the pro-democracy party from governing.
...
Ahead of the prime ministerial vote, political watchers anticipate a variety of outcomes, including the possibility of forced intervention by the country’s powerful military-monarchy alliance.
“Move Forward’s agenda is an affront and a frontal challenge to the established centers of power,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor at Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science and a senior fellow at its Institute of Security and International Studies.
“It is likely a matter of when and how — not whether — they will strike back.”
...
Given Move Forward’s dogmatic stance, experts expect some kind of power play that would tailor outcomes to establishment preferences.
Arch-royalists could go as far as to ban Move Forward, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) warned in a report.
It’s a plausible scenario since royalist-conservative elites have sway over official bodies like the Constitutional Court, National Anti-Corruption Commission, and Electoral Commission. Opposition party Future Forward, for instance, was dissolved by the Constitutional Court in 2020 for violating election laws in the 2019 election — a charge that Human Rights Watch called “politically motivated.”
“The courts could find ways to nullify enough Move Forward and Pheu Thai victories to alter the balance of power,” echoed analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in a separate report.
Full story: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/23/how-tha ... sults.html
The world is watching this, and the wrong outcome could send Thailand spiraling back decades but at least the generals, elites, and oligarchs can continue enriching themselves at the expense of the population ...
Thailand’s preliminary election results was a triumph for the progressive Move Forward party but its reforms are set to threaten conservative forces that may move to prevent the pro-democracy party from governing.
...
Ahead of the prime ministerial vote, political watchers anticipate a variety of outcomes, including the possibility of forced intervention by the country’s powerful military-monarchy alliance.
“Move Forward’s agenda is an affront and a frontal challenge to the established centers of power,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor at Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science and a senior fellow at its Institute of Security and International Studies.
“It is likely a matter of when and how — not whether — they will strike back.”
...
Given Move Forward’s dogmatic stance, experts expect some kind of power play that would tailor outcomes to establishment preferences.
Arch-royalists could go as far as to ban Move Forward, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) warned in a report.
It’s a plausible scenario since royalist-conservative elites have sway over official bodies like the Constitutional Court, National Anti-Corruption Commission, and Electoral Commission. Opposition party Future Forward, for instance, was dissolved by the Constitutional Court in 2020 for violating election laws in the 2019 election — a charge that Human Rights Watch called “politically motivated.”
“The courts could find ways to nullify enough Move Forward and Pheu Thai victories to alter the balance of power,” echoed analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in a separate report.
Full story: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/23/how-tha ... sults.html
The world is watching this, and the wrong outcome could send Thailand spiraling back decades but at least the generals, elites, and oligarchs can continue enriching themselves at the expense of the population ...
Who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed? - Hunter S Thompson
Re: Upcoming general election fundamentally flawed: Human Rights Watch
Accirding to the Thai Enquirer, a meeting of the elites is taking place tomorrow. So the Bangkok Post should be able to provide a swift report, as their owners will no doubt be there.
At least 3 sources have now confirmed of a slated meeting. This ‘very very imporant’
meeting is slated for tomorrow (Wednesday) that would be taking place in Bangkok.
Details of this meeting is yet to be known, but those attending the meeting are
who’s who of Thailand.
Thai Enquirer cannot say anything beyond this for fear of breach of law and
possibility of endangering our sources
https://www.thaienquirer.com/wp-content ... 3-2023.pdf
At least 3 sources have now confirmed of a slated meeting. This ‘very very imporant’
meeting is slated for tomorrow (Wednesday) that would be taking place in Bangkok.
Details of this meeting is yet to be known, but those attending the meeting are
who’s who of Thailand.
Thai Enquirer cannot say anything beyond this for fear of breach of law and
possibility of endangering our sources
https://www.thaienquirer.com/wp-content ... 3-2023.pdf
Talk is cheap
Re: Upcoming general election fundamentally flawed: Human Rights Watch
Here is a graphical representation of the "no chance for democracy any time soon" parliament in Thailand from AFP.
Who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed? - Hunter S Thompson
Re: Thailand general election fundamentally flawed: Human Rights Watch
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF PITA FAILS TO SECURE PM’S VOTE ON JULY 13?
Several weeks after the Move Forward Party’s election victory, it is still not certain whether party leader Pita Limjaroenrat will become Thailand’s next prime minister: will he get enough supporting votes? What the public does know for sure is that the prime minister vote will be held at 9:30 a.m. on July 13, 2023.
Move Forward MP Padipat Suntiphada overwhelmingly won the vote for 1st Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives. He received 312 votes, more than half of the House on July 4. However, prime minister voting will not be so easy, since a senator is involved.
Pita must secure 376 votes, which is two-thirds of the parliament. Measured against the current 312 votes received by the party, it is still 64 votes short.
Second Deputy House Speaker Pichaet Chuamuangpan said on Thursday if Move Forward Party PM candidate Pita fails to get the 376 votes needed to become PM on July 13, a second and even third voting will be held on July 19 and 20.
Getting the support of senators is a hurdle for Pita because they were elected by Prayut Chan-o-cha when he was the leader of the coup. Many senators are also royalists and right-wingers who have stated that they will never vote for Pita if the party insists on amending Article 112 to reform the royal family.
...
Wan Muhamad Noor Matha, the new Speaker of the House of Representatives, who is from the compromise between Move Forward and Pheu Thai, responded to a question about the scenario that Pita would not pass the first vote.
“I firmly believe that if we act appropriately to benefit the people, we will achieve our goals,” Wan Muhamad stated the session would immediately end that day (July 13) and a new session would have to be scheduled until a decision is made. The readiness of the members must be taken into account to ensure full participation of everyone in the meeting.
The new Speaker of the House of Representatives further mentioned that when the new session is scheduled, the Constitution does not prescribe whether the same person or a new person should be nominated. There are only provisions of the Election Commission that state that the candidate must have the required qualifications.
If all the lists of names submitted to the Electoral Commission have failed, the Constitution gives Parliament the option of proposing individuals from outside Parliament, but this process is lengthy and ultimately requires a vote of at least 376 members.
Therefore, it is difficult to make predictions. What is crucial, however, is that we have a prime minister and a cabinet that can effectively govern the country.
https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/202 ... n-july-13/
Its pretty clear what will happen: riots and violence on the streets (and not just in Bangkok this time), economy and currency tank with no government and investment fleeing, tourism slumps again as embassies issue travel warnings ...
Several weeks after the Move Forward Party’s election victory, it is still not certain whether party leader Pita Limjaroenrat will become Thailand’s next prime minister: will he get enough supporting votes? What the public does know for sure is that the prime minister vote will be held at 9:30 a.m. on July 13, 2023.
Move Forward MP Padipat Suntiphada overwhelmingly won the vote for 1st Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives. He received 312 votes, more than half of the House on July 4. However, prime minister voting will not be so easy, since a senator is involved.
Pita must secure 376 votes, which is two-thirds of the parliament. Measured against the current 312 votes received by the party, it is still 64 votes short.
Second Deputy House Speaker Pichaet Chuamuangpan said on Thursday if Move Forward Party PM candidate Pita fails to get the 376 votes needed to become PM on July 13, a second and even third voting will be held on July 19 and 20.
Getting the support of senators is a hurdle for Pita because they were elected by Prayut Chan-o-cha when he was the leader of the coup. Many senators are also royalists and right-wingers who have stated that they will never vote for Pita if the party insists on amending Article 112 to reform the royal family.
...
Wan Muhamad Noor Matha, the new Speaker of the House of Representatives, who is from the compromise between Move Forward and Pheu Thai, responded to a question about the scenario that Pita would not pass the first vote.
“I firmly believe that if we act appropriately to benefit the people, we will achieve our goals,” Wan Muhamad stated the session would immediately end that day (July 13) and a new session would have to be scheduled until a decision is made. The readiness of the members must be taken into account to ensure full participation of everyone in the meeting.
The new Speaker of the House of Representatives further mentioned that when the new session is scheduled, the Constitution does not prescribe whether the same person or a new person should be nominated. There are only provisions of the Election Commission that state that the candidate must have the required qualifications.
If all the lists of names submitted to the Electoral Commission have failed, the Constitution gives Parliament the option of proposing individuals from outside Parliament, but this process is lengthy and ultimately requires a vote of at least 376 members.
Therefore, it is difficult to make predictions. What is crucial, however, is that we have a prime minister and a cabinet that can effectively govern the country.
https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/202 ... n-july-13/
Its pretty clear what will happen: riots and violence on the streets (and not just in Bangkok this time), economy and currency tank with no government and investment fleeing, tourism slumps again as embassies issue travel warnings ...
Who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed? - Hunter S Thompson
Re: Thailand general election fundamentally flawed: Human Rights Watch
I think if Pita isn't elected, that there is a good chance that MFP will pull out of the coalition and return to the backbenches. PT then have a choice, follow MFP or forever be tainted with forming a coalition with the dark side. And that will be the end of them. There will still be trouble on the streets of course. And let's not forget MFP had a unanimous victory in Bkk and strong support in traditional PT areas. No good will come from it, whatever.
Talk is cheap