GBP vs THB

[buksida]

I've just read today that (not solely, but) due to the Thai goverment's farce with the rice buying scheme, it's credit-rating on the world money market is looking like tumbling down the ladder somewhat..?

Ahem .... don't tell the reds/thaksinites/populists ... they'll just blame it on those yellow dudes in the white masks that dont make up the "democratic republic".

Vietnam has just overtaken Thailand also - so much for "grassroots" and looking after your own ..

Anyway - back to the sorry state of the GBP... which will come back ...

[Pleng]

It seems to have improved a little. Guess a lower rate when its high season and a lot of money is being exchanged is good for Thai banks.

I really don't think tourism has *that* much of an impact on exchange rates!

[PET]

Pleng you are absolutley correct in the case of Thailand because overseas investors sent over $3billion into Thailand during Jan to end April, I do not know what FX tourists would have brought in but a tiny figure in comparison, and for our exercise with £ vs Bhat rather pointless

[richard]

Tourist income counts for FA in the grand scale of things

[Big Boy]

It is about 6%, so not that insignificant.

[Edit] Take it away, and Thailand's growth would suddenly become a significant deficit.

[Pleng]

It is about 6%, so not that insignificant.

Not significant enough to warrant artificially strengthening the baht in high season then weakening it again in high season.

Anyway 47.8 today

[Big Boy]

Not significant enough to warrant artificially strengthening the baht in high season then weakening it again in high season.

No, I agree with that, but to say, "Tourist income counts for FA in the grand scale of things" is ludicrous. 6% of any country's GDP is very significant, and will have a bearing on exchange rates.

[Pleng]

Not significant enough to warrant artificially strengthening the baht in high season then weakening it again in high season.

No, I agree with that, but to say, "Tourist income counts for FA in the grand scale of things" is ludicrous. 6% of any country's GDP is very significant, and will have a bearing on exchange rates.

Ah yes I agree. Sorry I didn't see Richard's post.

[Dannie Boy]

Not significant enough to warrant artificially strengthening the baht in high season then weakening it again in high season.

No, I agree with that, but to say, "Tourist income counts for FA in the grand scale of things" is ludicrous. 6% of any country's GDP is very significant, and will have a bearing on exchange rates.

Not sure what year you are quoting BB, but if anything it is increasing as per this article in the Bankok Post:

Tourism revenue predicted at B1 trillion
Published: 30 Jan 2013 at 17.23Online news:
Kasikorn Research Centre forecast on Wednesday that around 24.5 million tourists will visit Thailand in 2013, bringing in 1.06 trillion baht of revenue.

The number of tourist arrivals to the kingdom and tourism earnings was expected to increase from last year by 10% and 14% respectively. Visitors from China, Japan, South Korea, India and Russia are expected to be the main contributors.

Tourism would prosper in 2013 because the world economy had recently become more stable. However, the 300 baht daily minimum wage would create a problem since tourist businesses employ a lot of staff, the Kasikorn research team said.

[Big Boy]

Disagreeing with richard's statement, I thought that I'd better check my facts first. There is a huge variation on the web, so I went for one of the lower estimates, which was Wikipedia.

Anyway, I think we've agreed that there would be problems if Thailand's tourism declined significantly, so please.

[lomuamart]

I'm no economic expert but the "argument" that the THB is being made strong is really only 20% of the story (approx).
The fact seems to me that the UK government are manipulating the GBP downwards. That suits exports and employment. The new Canadian governor of the B of E is coming in soon and it seems to me that he's also for a weak GBP.
I'd like to be able to preach something more upbeat but I just can't see it for another 3 years or so.
Again, I'm no John Maynard Keynes.

[HHTel]

But it seems that our biggest export is air held in the empty containers going back to China!!

[musungu]

But it seems that our biggest export is air held in the empty containers going back to China!!

Are you referring to 'hot air'?

[Pleng]

Yes I still haven't quite worked out exactly what it is that we're supposed to be manufacturing ans selling to China and India...

[midlandmike]

Mark Carney, the new Gov of the B of E is an interesting guy. He is given credit for taking Canada through the world wide financial mess with minimal pain. NO Canadian bank has had to be bailed out and the unemployment rate was not too bad. He must be an OK guy, he played goalie on the Harvard Hockey team.