GBP vs THB

[PET]

This link should gladden the hearts of the Brits for the next year or so. With the weaker Thai Baht even better !

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/excha ... on-4324234

[Dannie Boy]

I hope that this Pound forecast is better than the local weather forecast, which is normally pretty inaccurate.

[PET]

Oh dear another retiree with his glass half empty - FGS be optimistic.

[HHTel]

The pound against the baht was forecast last year to hit 60. That was from Bloomberg. So not easy to accept these 'experts' forecasts.

[PET]

I suggest you take into account the very strong statistics that are known at present and consider that this forecast is from Goldman Sachs a huge Merchant & Investment bank which has sent this info out to their clients whilst Bloomberg are a TV reporting company - albeit they would have probably had some 'expert' making a statement. Of course some totally unexpected event might occur which could change this but upon best known information this looks like a sensible appraisal

[HHTel]

Pound has just dropped a little because of disappointing wage criteria. The forecast is for the long term trend to keep it afloat and rising.
However, I've followed the city and 'experts' world wide including Goldman Sachs. They get it wrong more than they get it right!!
Some of the latest 'gaffs' from Goldman:-

1. Gold will decline significantly
Prediction: After a loss of around 26% in 2013, Goldman said the precious metal would continue to lose its luster in 2014, falling by at least 15%, or below $1,057, citing, among other things, the effects of the Fed's stimulus taper. Goldman reiterated the target several times over the course of the year.

Reality: Gold hit a bottom at $1,150 last fall, never approaching Goldman's target, and finished the year essentially flat, down just about 3%.

Predicting the future value of gold is particularly difficult, as there are no cash flows underlying the value of the metal, nor is it tied to economic growth the way other commodities since it's not valued for its utility.

2. Oil will be $90 in the first quarter of 2015
Prediction: Goldman had originally forecast West Texas Intermediate crude prices to reach $90 a barrel for the first quarter of 2015, but it made headlines when it cut its price target in late October for the beginning of this year.

Reality: It's now three weeks into 2015, and oil remains below $50, befuddling nearly every analyst on Wall Street.

3. Brazil will win the world cup
Prediction: Goldman Sachs' prediction for the World Cup received a lot of attention,and it came with a detailed explanation on how the model was based on regression analysis using the entire history of international competitive matches since 1960. It also weighed factors such as home-continent advantage for Latin American teams. The model gave Brazil a near 50% chance of winning -- unusually strong, and far better than Argentina, which was next in line with a 14% chance of winning.

Reality: Brazil was ousted in the semifinal in embarrassing fashion, losing 7-1 to Germany, which went on to win the tournament, beating Argentina in the final.


Goldman's predictions will continue to be splashed on financial news headlines, but investors should remember: Talk is cheap.

DON'T BE SUCKED IN, Pet. Goldman Sachs continually update/correct their forecast.

[Davy B]

Can someone please tell me where the Exchange Rate details are obtained from. I must have looked in about 20 banks yesterday and I cannot get anything like the 56 Baht per 1 Pound Sterling that is mentioned. The best I could see was 55.30 at the kiosk in the Basement of Market Village. I know it does not make that much of a difference if only exchanging 50 pounds but it does when exchanging a thousand!!

[Pleng]

56 quoted is the mid-market rate. You can find it at sites such as XE.com
It's down to 55.2 at the time of writing.

You will always get a little less at banks and exchange booths as... well they need to make some money out of the process!

[hhinner]

Also, if you click on "Thai Baht Exchange Rate" it takes you to fx-rate.net.

[PET]

IMO this link is the most accurate - the TT rate is exactly what the bank will exchange at their ATM's and also what they will credit you when transferring from overseas via SWIFT

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

It is updated throughout the working day

[den123]

hi guys wehat rate to the pound are you getting there now also best place to change money best rate thanks

[Farang]

http://superrichthai.com/exchange

[HHTel]

It's 53.85 at the moment with 53 at the banks. Hopefully this is a hiccup as the dollar has hit the pound int the last week forcing it down to a dollar fifty. It should move upwards in the next month.

[buksida]

Can any of you financial gurus explain why I'm getting charged a worse exchange rate using a Thai ATM card in the UK AFTER Brexit and the fall in GBP than I was before?

I can only assume the banks have put in stop losses on transactions with foriegn ATM cards to protect their own assets, thus taking a bigger spread on the fx rate. (Before the vote actual was 50.6, I took out at 51.7 - After the vote actual is 47.3, I took out at 53.5 ... WTF????)

Wankers/Bankers are always the winners

[Bluesky]

I am not a financial guru by any stretch of the imagination. However the the most likely reason is that shortly after the vote count commenced all hell broke lose in the currency and financial markets when it was realized that BREXIT was no longer a mere possibility but an actual probability. Traders were ill prepared and found themselves on the wrong side of the door (Even George Soros was long on the pound)
Most currency markets against GBP had concerns regarding liquidity causing spreads (difference between buy and sell) to widen. This was further excacerbated by a spike in volatility thus creating greater movements and gyrations over given timeframes. Banks and most financial institutions are 'maket makers' setting their own spreads over and above the actual market which gives them a healthy margin on the trade.
Likewise in times of illiquidity and especially if the currency market is closed spreads widen quite considerably.
I have a attached link to the centre price for Fx GBP THB on a chart over the time in question which may help explain the volatile movement.

Also attached is implied volatility chart for GBP THB which is 29.56 Compared to yuan at 2.62

If the Financial institution had to 'carry' the trade over the weekend their spread would have been multiplied by volatility factor determined by both previous and future market events. These spreads are structured so the institution de risks and cannot lose as a result of the transaction.
I hope this may help.
Banks never lose. Only people do.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from= ... HB&view=1W

http://www.ratesfx.com/predictions/pred-thb.html