Indonesia given REPEATED warnings by Geologist ...

[Bangkokney]

A LEADING geologist repeatedly warned Indonesian officials that an earthquake and tsunami would soon strike their shores, it emerged this weekend.



Kerry Sieh, professor of geology at California Institute of Technology, has been studying the region for nearly a decade.

Last July he became so concerned at the likely massive loss of life that he printed and distributed 5,000 posters and brochures around some of the islands later hit by the earthquake.

He addressed church congregations and schools to tell people what to do in an earthquake. His main advice was for people to live away from shorelines.

Sieh had been due to meet Indonesian officials last month to discuss a wider education programme but the meeting was cancelled at the last minute because the officials said they had no money.

Two weeks ago he expressed his fear that a big earthquake and tsunami were overdue in the region at a conference in San Francisco.

Sieh said this weekend: “No one can predict exactly when an earthquake will happen but it was clear that this area was at relatively high risk and such an event would definitely happen one day.

“We told them it would kill people, wreck infrastructure and destroy livelihoods. But our warnings were falling on deaf ears.

“My team and I decided to bypass the national and local government and start warning people directly. I hope our efforts saved some lives.â€

[Stormy]

The problem with warnings though, is what you do with them. As a geologist, it is possible to forecast earthquakes, but only to a accuracy of about 70%. And there is no way of saying how big this will be other than statistics. The result of giving earthquake warnings is mass evacuation and disruption for a event that may not happen and even if it does, may cause no damage. It is for this reason that Japan has now abandoned earthquake warnings.
This should not though be confused with tsunami warning systems which the area urgently needs.

[ianjames]

[quote="Stormy"] It is for this reason that Japan has now abandoned earthquake warnings.

Very reassuring for me!