Now I'm rather cynical and you can probably imagine whats coming next but since the old 'property wars' have been dragged up again by the same old combatants I thought I'd post my own thoughts and opinions (yes, folks thats all they are).
I have put my own real estate investment plans on hold for a year for a number of perceived reasons:
1) Doubtful there will be any form of democratic elections this year, the junta are becoming more protectionist by the day.
2) The government are likely to clampdown on foreigners further to appease the masses and gain more control.
3) As a result of actions in scenarios 1 and 2 property prices will fall as will the general real estate industry and market, Thais do not pay the prices we are seeing for real estate in Hua Hin.
4) A possible recession could be on the cards thus seeing a devaluation of the baht - these things are usually cyclical, the last one was in '97 and I guess we're right on time for another ten years on.
5) Resale will be difficult if the supply far outstrips the demand and scenario 3 or 4 have occurred, locals will not pay these prices.
6) Plenty more unknowns with political, economical, national security and regal futures all in the balance at the moment. The western media have also picked up on this.
Naturally these are worse case scenarios but can anyone see anything positive or encouraging for foreigners in Thailand over the coming year? Granted everyones situations are different and if you have a few mil spare pocket change that you can afford to lose then go for it but I for one don't so have to think twice now.
Thoughts, flames and abuse on a self addressed envelope to Buksi's Ranting Agency, PO Box 007, Cynicville, Arizona.
A good time for property investment?
A good time for property investment?
Who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed? - Hunter S Thompson
I believe that Hua Hin, over the next 5, 10 to 15 years, will grow into one of Thailands biggest and best resorts, probably bigger than Phuket (due to the lack of land availability there), and that business and property prices will increase considerably, especially nearer to town, as the developments spread out of town.
That's an honest opinion, despite my vested interest.
I don't see the Government clamping down on property investers:
1)We had the Land Offices clamping down on foreign developers but they left alone ordinary buyers.
2) The new regulation re: setting up companies did not affect ordinary buyers.
3) The tourist visa clampdown did not affect ordinary buyers.
4) Property was exempt from the 30% deduction for currency inflows.
5) List 3 of the FBA (where most property purchase companies are defined) was exempt from the new regulations on nominee shareholders.
They've had plenty of chances to clampdown on foreign buyers but have chose not too, that's a positive to me.
It's amazing how many times you heard people say that they wont buy property yet in London or Spain as the prices are bound to come down soon, only to pay even higher prices later (I've done it myself and learn't a lesson).
It can be a long wait for one of these market crashes, 10 years in Thailand now, 20 odd years in the UK.
Burger
That's an honest opinion, despite my vested interest.
I don't see the Government clamping down on property investers:
1)We had the Land Offices clamping down on foreign developers but they left alone ordinary buyers.
2) The new regulation re: setting up companies did not affect ordinary buyers.
3) The tourist visa clampdown did not affect ordinary buyers.
4) Property was exempt from the 30% deduction for currency inflows.
5) List 3 of the FBA (where most property purchase companies are defined) was exempt from the new regulations on nominee shareholders.
They've had plenty of chances to clampdown on foreign buyers but have chose not too, that's a positive to me.
It's amazing how many times you heard people say that they wont buy property yet in London or Spain as the prices are bound to come down soon, only to pay even higher prices later (I've done it myself and learn't a lesson).
It can be a long wait for one of these market crashes, 10 years in Thailand now, 20 odd years in the UK.
Burger
I'm holding similar views to Buksida on this issue. I too was planning on building a house in Hua Hin, but have decided to wait a year or two to see how things develop.
The way I view things is that based on the fact that property prices seem to have stopped rising at the moment, there is little point in investing more money into the country whilst there are so many unknowns.You would be increasing your exposure to risk with no apparent gain and as long as property rental prices stay as low as they are, you can rent with almost no risk at all.
If things go badly wrong in Thailand you can pull out, if they go a little wrong you might be able to buy a cheap house and if things go well, you just carry on with your original plans at a later date.
The way I view things is that based on the fact that property prices seem to have stopped rising at the moment, there is little point in investing more money into the country whilst there are so many unknowns.You would be increasing your exposure to risk with no apparent gain and as long as property rental prices stay as low as they are, you can rent with almost no risk at all.
If things go badly wrong in Thailand you can pull out, if they go a little wrong you might be able to buy a cheap house and if things go well, you just carry on with your original plans at a later date.
You can't go wrong with that thinking. Wait and see.STEVE G wrote:I'm holding similar views to Buksida on this issue. I too was planning on building a house in Hua Hin, but have decided to wait a year or two to see how things develop.
The way I view things is that based on the fact that property prices seem to have stopped rising at the moment, there is little point in investing more money into the country whilst there are so many unknowns.You would be increasing your exposure to risk with no apparent gain and as long as property rental prices stay as low as they are, you can rent with almost no risk at all.
If things go badly wrong in Thailand you can pull out, if they go a little wrong you might be able to buy a cheap house and if things go well, you just carry on with your original plans at a later date.
And if you already have property, well wait and see. Panic never wins.
Burger,
I agree with your comments on the growth of Hua Hin as it was the first and still is an essentially Thai resort. I also agree with your comments about the clampdowns not affecting property buyers but don't you think that all the clampdowns in general against foreigners are going to put people off?
I mean how are they expected to come and stay in Thailand in their new house if they cant get visas or have to jump through stupid beaurocratic hoops and pay silly money to do so. Theses are the ones that are not retired or married to Thai nationals.
Not arguing here as I don't know enough about real estate to do so, just putting across a few of my thoughts as to why I've held off investing. And I'm not talking about Spain or London, just Hua Hin and Thailand in general. I for one can't afford anything in Hua Hin now, my investment was going to be in another part of the country.
Also my situation is different as I live and work here and am not bringing money in, hence my views on the outlook for the coming year. Additionally my investment was going into my Thai wifes name as the lease system seems completely ludicrous to me.
Just thoughts
I agree with your comments on the growth of Hua Hin as it was the first and still is an essentially Thai resort. I also agree with your comments about the clampdowns not affecting property buyers but don't you think that all the clampdowns in general against foreigners are going to put people off?
I mean how are they expected to come and stay in Thailand in their new house if they cant get visas or have to jump through stupid beaurocratic hoops and pay silly money to do so. Theses are the ones that are not retired or married to Thai nationals.
Not arguing here as I don't know enough about real estate to do so, just putting across a few of my thoughts as to why I've held off investing. And I'm not talking about Spain or London, just Hua Hin and Thailand in general. I for one can't afford anything in Hua Hin now, my investment was going to be in another part of the country.
Also my situation is different as I live and work here and am not bringing money in, hence my views on the outlook for the coming year. Additionally my investment was going into my Thai wifes name as the lease system seems completely ludicrous to me.
Just thoughts
Who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed? - Hunter S Thompson
Buksi my sentiments and analysis perfectly i have been trying to say just that for 2 years now but my over the top charge and at them style just doesnt cut it i am not a writer though well done perfect post
from now on i will be quoting your post
The problem is that those with vested interests will still talk it up knowing full well that your post is the only sensible approach
and the idiots that only listen to what they want to hear and go stone deaf to warnings and good advice will plough on regardless 
I hope they are ready for my non sympathetical approach if and when it goes pear shaped which although no means certain i think it will and quicker than people think paras 1 2 &3 in your summary
from now on i will be quoting your post
The problem is that those with vested interests will still talk it up knowing full well that your post is the only sensible approach
and the idiots that only listen to what they want to hear and go stone deaf to warnings and good advice will plough on regardless I hope they are ready for my non sympathetical approach if and when it goes pear shaped which although no means certain i think it will and quicker than people think paras 1 2 &3 in your summary
A Greatfull Guest of Thailand
I'm sure the perceived anti-foreigner agenda will/is putting some people off, but some people will see that it does not affecct property and be encouraged by that, some won't.
I don't think many of the property buyers were planning on doing monthly visa runs when they can get a non-imm 'O' from Hull in a day, for 90 quid, so not sure how much of an issue that is.
It may go one of 3 ways I guess:
1) It stays the same and prices rise steadily (Some say prices are not rising, they are, look at any 'phase 2' of a development and you'll see the prices have gone up from phase 1, they HAVE to as land prices from the Thais are going up)
2) They start clamping down on foreign property buyers and the market does crash and then you'll all pick up cheap properties and the developers will be in trouble. (At this point TTM will spontaneously erupt with joy, causing his head to explode, scanners style).
3) The Government finally resolve the issue and make a way possible for foreigners to buy, by say giving 50 year leases (that some people talk about as most likely), or they let you lease your land direct from the Land office or Banks. Then the prices will soar and you'll all be paying prices higher than today.
This debate will go on forever until the Government do something one way or the other.
Burger
I don't think many of the property buyers were planning on doing monthly visa runs when they can get a non-imm 'O' from Hull in a day, for 90 quid, so not sure how much of an issue that is.
It may go one of 3 ways I guess:
1) It stays the same and prices rise steadily (Some say prices are not rising, they are, look at any 'phase 2' of a development and you'll see the prices have gone up from phase 1, they HAVE to as land prices from the Thais are going up)
2) They start clamping down on foreign property buyers and the market does crash and then you'll all pick up cheap properties and the developers will be in trouble. (At this point TTM will spontaneously erupt with joy, causing his head to explode, scanners style).
3) The Government finally resolve the issue and make a way possible for foreigners to buy, by say giving 50 year leases (that some people talk about as most likely), or they let you lease your land direct from the Land office or Banks. Then the prices will soar and you'll all be paying prices higher than today.
This debate will go on forever until the Government do something one way or the other.
Burger
I don't normally get involved in these property debates.
However, your comment, Burger, that the London market is likely to fall is wrong. For every year that I've lived here - and that's nearly 9 - my property there has appreciated by approx 1 million Baht every year. That's let alone the rental value that I get off it, thereby living here.
I could sell tomorow and pocket a sizeable amount of money, but what would I do with it?
For a lot of the reasons outlined above, I certainly wouldn't invest any of it in Thailand. The country's just too risky - has been and always will be.
This is just my view, but when I've got a wife to take care of, I simply don't want to risk my one and only investment back home on the whims of others.
I appreciate that some westerners are in a different financial position to me, however I certainly can't and won't risk it all.
Having said all that, I do love my wife and I do love living here. I'll just rent because it suits me.
However, your comment, Burger, that the London market is likely to fall is wrong. For every year that I've lived here - and that's nearly 9 - my property there has appreciated by approx 1 million Baht every year. That's let alone the rental value that I get off it, thereby living here.
I could sell tomorow and pocket a sizeable amount of money, but what would I do with it?
For a lot of the reasons outlined above, I certainly wouldn't invest any of it in Thailand. The country's just too risky - has been and always will be.
This is just my view, but when I've got a wife to take care of, I simply don't want to risk my one and only investment back home on the whims of others.
I appreciate that some westerners are in a different financial position to me, however I certainly can't and won't risk it all.
Having said all that, I do love my wife and I do love living here. I'll just rent because it suits me.
Everyone has their opinions, here's mine.
The Thai property market is saturated and has reached bubble levels.
Rent returns are too low.
The laws are too vague to invest any serious money.
Hua Hin will never become Thailand's 'biggest and best' resort because the beach is crap and the 3-4 hour drive from Bangkok is a pain in the arse for many who could be in Phuket or Samui in an hour, where the beaches are far superior.
The thousands of Thais who have holiday homes in HH don't want it to become the 'biggest' resort in Thailand.
PS I love Hua Hin.
The Thai property market is saturated and has reached bubble levels.
Rent returns are too low.
The laws are too vague to invest any serious money.
Hua Hin will never become Thailand's 'biggest and best' resort because the beach is crap and the 3-4 hour drive from Bangkok is a pain in the arse for many who could be in Phuket or Samui in an hour, where the beaches are far superior.
The thousands of Thais who have holiday homes in HH don't want it to become the 'biggest' resort in Thailand.
PS I love Hua Hin.
The fact is that the government are not doing anything- except making it more difficult and uncertain. Sure, someone that buys property will not want to be making 30 day visa runs, however it's also a bit ludicrous to go back to the UK every 15 mths or so just to get a multi-entry visa.Burger wrote:I'm sure the perceived anti-foreigner agenda will/is putting some people off, but some people will see that it does not affecct property and be encouraged by that, some won't.
I don't think many of the property buyers were planning on doing monthly visa runs when they can get a non-imm 'O' from Hull in a day, for 90 quid, so not sure how much of an issue that is.
It may go one of 3 ways I guess:
1) It stays the same and prices rise steadily (Some say prices are not rising, they are, look at any 'phase 2' of a development and you'll see the prices have gone up from phase 1, they HAVE to as land prices from the Thais are going up)
2) They start clamping down on foreign property buyers and the market does crash and then you'll all pick up cheap properties and the developers will be in trouble. (At this point TTM will spontaneously erupt with joy, causing his head to explode, scanners style).
3) The Government finally resolve the issue and make a way possible for foreigners to buy, by say giving 50 year leases (that some people talk about as most likely), or they let you lease your land direct from the Land office or Banks. Then the prices will soar and you'll all be paying prices higher than today.
This debate will go on forever until the Government do something one way or the other.
Burger
However, I do appreciate the annual extensions that are possible to Non Imm visas, as long as you're married to a Thai or are over 50 yrs old.
As a PS - IMHO the multi-entry Non O visas will disappear completely. They are almost impossible to obtain in neighbouring countries now. It's only a matter of time before they are phased out alltogether. "Marry a Thai - be over 50 years old - bring in millions" and even then we'll treat you as a whatever.
Again, just my view. I still choose to live here, but I'm mobile and can move with my wife any old time I want.
Lomu,
What I would consider a hardship is going on visa runs every month, 15 monthly visa runs takes longer than a 5 day trip to the UK.
Burger
I think I said the exact opposite mate!?!?However, your comment, Burger, that the London market is likely to fall is wrong
It's no hardship as far as I'm concerned, most people do it anyway to see friends and family.however it's also a bit ludicrous to go back to the UK every 15 mths or so just to get a multi-entry visa.
What I would consider a hardship is going on visa runs every month, 15 monthly visa runs takes longer than a 5 day trip to the UK.
Burger
Last edited by Burger on Wed Jan 24, 2007 11:24 am, edited 3 times in total.
RoppongiRoppongi wrote:Everyone has their opinions, here's mine.
The Thai property market is saturated and has reached bubble levels.
Rent returns are too low.
The laws are too vague to invest any serious money.
Hua Hin will never become Thailand's 'biggest and best' resort because the beach is crap and the 3-4 hour drive from Bangkok is a pain in the arse for many who could be in Phuket or Samui in an hour, where the beaches are far superior.
The thousands of Thais who have holiday homes in HH don't want it to become the 'biggest' resort in Thailand.
PS I love Hua Hin.
I think that some of the facts you base your oppinion on are maybe not correct.
The Thai proerty market seems to be far from saturated. In Bangkok (where I spend most of my time), properties (especially condos) are selling extremely well - and they keep on building them (admittedly they never seem to totally sell all the condos in all developments, but that seems a tradition that stretches back as long as I can remember). Moo bans also are being built and sold at a rate of knots.
With regard to poor rental returns, I totaly dissagree, Rental retruned in Thailand (i Speak mainly for Bangkok) are digustingly high - if you base the rental value on the cost of the property you will see that a new Bangkok property rents for about 2-3 times the price of an equivilently priced UK property. For HH, I don't know the figures so well.
I agree totally that HH will never become the Number 1 Resort in Thailand, and that's just fine. With regard to the Thais who live in HH or just own weekend homes there - I honestly think that they don't give a toss what HH becomes.
Winkie
Only the crumbliest, flakiest Winkie....
Sorry, but not 100% true, Lomu!lomuamart wrote: IMHO the multi-entry Non O visas will disappear completely. They are almost impossible to obtain in neighbouring countries now.
In the moment you can get a multi-entry Non-O visa in KL/Malaysia and Singapore.
I have been in KL on 8th of January and could get a new multiple-entry Non-O without any problems.
Of course, it can be that the multi-entry Non-O visa will disappear in future.
But this would make nothing easier for TH or interested foreign investors, which want to enjoy their investment by their self.
To be older than 50 years isn't an automatically sign of being wealthy, and therefore to be able to retire.
Many young guys have much more money than the over 50s.
...and you can't force all people which like TH to marry one of the locals, just to earn the right for a long-stay-permission.
I don't think, that there will be a totally "crash" in the near future, but I also don't think that Hua Hin will become one of Thailand’s biggest and best resorts.
This just could become true within 10 or 20 years, if the responsible Thais would be able to understand the meaning of "town-planning".
It's really not enough to have some multi-mio-baht villas & a big Benz somewhere in the middle of nowhere.
A good infrastructure (water-, electricity supply, perfect streets & pedestrian's ways, leisure offers, public parks, high-quality cultural arrangements, cultivated beaches etc.) should go hand in hand with property-development to reach such an aim.
If you don't like to enjoy just different restaurants, pubs & girlie-bars, and be willing i.e. to travel about 1 hour to the Manao-Beach you're at the wrong place definitely in the moment.
(Sorry, I forget the historical railway-station!)
The prices for real estates are overrated already and I can’t see any chance that this will go on.
Locals never ever will pay these prices as mentioned from others above already, and for foreigners the actual circumstances aren’t very comfortable to invest a lot of money.
IMO all depends on the Thai-government and their visa- and investment-laws.
So long they create laws to set foreigners and investors under pressure (according to mood), TH won’t have an appreciable future compare to some of their neighbor-countries.
On the other side, I'm not sure, whether many people really like the idea to create a small but cheaper more copy of Europe in TH.
The former flair of this country would be over totally.