Major Economic Issues For Thailand

[buksida]

Thai Central Bank Chief Says Focus is on Growth Not Inflation
Bank of Thailand is focused on aiding economic growth and tourism recovery amid subdued inflation and is less worried about the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary actions, Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput said.

The policy maker’s decision will be influenced more by domestic considerations and “less dictated by the Fed,” Sethaput said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Kathleen Hays, Rishaad Salamat and David Ingles. There’s an “upside” to the BOT’s growth estimate of 0.7% this year but 2022 -- when the monetary authority projects a 3.9% expansion -- is fraught with uncertainty, he said. The forecasts will be reviewed at the Dec. 22 rate meeting.

Thailand’s economy is expected to be Southeast Asia’s worst performer this year, pressured by weak local demand and tourist arrivals. The omicron variant adds more risk to the nascent economic recovery, any new variants in the future could impact the growth estimates, he said.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f=323RPL5z

Vietnam seems to be kicking ass all round ...

[sateeb]

Not sure where to post this but one of the most iconic of British institutions Selfridges, is looking to be gobbled up by Thai conglomerate Central Group - more in the attached!!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59517819

Yep, it's happened.

Selfridges sold for £4bn to Thai-Austrian alliance

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59777577

[HHTel]

And as a foreigner in Thailand, I'm not allowed to buy a small house to live in!!

[Dannie Boy]

And as a foreigner in Thailand, I'm not allowed to buy a small house to live in!!

If you had £4b in your back pocket, they’d probably make an exception!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[buksida]

Headline inflation jumps on rising fuel and food prices
Thailand’s consumer price index (CPI), an indicator of headline inflation, in December rose 2.17 percent year-on-year, driven by rising fuel and food prices, the Ministry of Commerce said Wednesday.

This marks the fourth consecutive month of rising in headline inflation since September 2021.

For the entire 2021, the headline CPI increased 1.23 percent from a year earlier, Ronnarong Phoolpipat, the Director-General at the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, told a briefing.

Ronnarong cited a jump in retail fuel and fresh food prices, especially pork, that kept the headline inflation rising in December.

“The inflation rate suggests that prices of the country’s goods and services throughout 2021 remain stable in line with the trends of supply and demand,” he said.

https://www.thaienquirer.com/36229/head ... od-prices/

CP will be rubbing their hands together with glee.

[buksida]

Hyperventilating about inflation?
Suphachai Chearavanont, chief executive of Charoen Pokphand Group (CP), the agribusiness giant, recently mentioned dire economic prospects, including the ominous word hyperinflation.

Hyperinflation worries stem from a combination of factors including US-China tensions, the global food and energy crises, a potential cryptocurrency bubble and massive ongoing capital injections into the world economy to keep it afloat during the pandemic, he said.

The skyrocketing prices of pork in Thailand and an uptick in headline inflation for four consecutive months underline Mr Suphachai's concerns.

Pressing issues include how hyperinflation is defined, whether could it happen in Thailand, and how it affects overall consumers, domestic interest rates and the recovering economy.

Hyperinflation is a term economists use to describe a period of extremely high inflation, which measures the rate of rising prices for goods and services. Typically an economy must record an inflation rate greater than 50% for at least a month before economists label it hyperinflation.

Full Story: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/22 ... inflation-

Crypto has nothing to do with it, it is a tiny industry with a market cap smaller than that of Apple or Microsoft. Artificially inflating the currency, which these goons have been doing for years, is likely to have a greater impact.

[handdrummer]

Hyperventilating about inflation?
Suphachai Chearavanont, chief executive of Charoen Pokphand Group (CP), the agribusiness giant, recently mentioned dire economic prospects, including the ominous word hyperinflation.

Hyperinflation worries stem from a combination of factors including US-China tensions, the global food and energy crises, a potential cryptocurrency bubble and massive ongoing capital injections into the world economy to keep it afloat during the pandemic, he said.

The skyrocketing prices of pork in Thailand and an uptick in headline inflation for four consecutive months underline Mr Suphachai's concerns.

Pressing issues include how hyperinflation is defined, whether could it happen in Thailand, and how it affects overall consumers, domestic interest rates and the recovering economy.

Hyperinflation is a term economists use to describe a period of extremely high inflation, which measures the rate of rising prices for goods and services. Typically an economy must record an inflation rate greater than 50% for at least a month before economists label it hyperinflation.

Full Story: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/22 ... inflation-

Crypto has nothing to do with it, it is a tiny industry with a market cap smaller than that of Apple or Microsoft. Artificially inflating the currency, which these goons have been doing for years, is likely to have a greater impact.

it's the usual Thai penchant for blaming everyone and everything except themselves. Mustn't lose face.

[buksida]

Could Malaysia And Thailand Be Heading Into A Bout Of Classic Stagflation?
Medical experts around the world are beginning to say that the Covid-19 crisis is heading into an endemic stage with the emergence of the Omicron variant. The world is experiencing drags within supply chains, a lethargic recovery in international tourism, and continued pressures on the cost of living from high oil prices.

Countries will need to transition from heavy restrictions to protect public health to a basket of measures to kickstart their respective economies. However, coming over the economic horizon in both Malaysia and Thailand is the prospect of stagflation hitting these respective economies, presenting policymakers with new challenges.

Stagflation is a condition where the economy is experiencing high inflation, recession, and high unemployment, all at the same time.

It was perplexing to economists at the time because the remedies for each of the major conditions making up stagflation, would aggravate other symptoms. For example, boosting economic activity in the economy would be inflationary and fighting inflation with raising interest rates would adversely affect economic activity and increase unemployment.

...

In 2022, Malaysia and Thailand may face similar problems with some differences, requiring more skilful remedies.

Both Malaysia and Thailand are in what can be described as deep recessions. Malaysia’s GDP declined by 4.5 percent in the 3rd quarter of 2021, while the Thai economy at the same time dropped 1.1 percent, according to official figures from both countries.

...

Whether Malaysia and Thailand slip into stagflation will depend on the growth of the money supply, the future pricing of oil, and how quickly there can be a return to normality and resulting increases in demand and supply. Its absolutely vital interest rates remain low. However, in addition the institutional credit squeezes on the SMEs of both Malaysia and Thailand need to be eased. The circulation of money is much more important than the stock of money in economic recovery.

https://www.eurasiareview.com/25012022- ... -analysis/

[buksida]

CPI jumps 3.23% y/y, beats forecast
The headline consumer price index (CPI) jumped more than expected by 3.23% in January from a year earlier, the commerce ministry said on Friday.

The reading compared with a forecast for a rise of 2.40% in a Reuters poll and followed December's 2.17% increase.

The core CPI index was up 0.52% from a year earlier, versus a forecast for a 0.37% rise.

January's inflation was considered not that high and would not require government action yet, ministry official Ronnarong Phoolpipat told a news conference.

The main CPI in February is expected to rise but not at a high level, in line with the economic situation on both demand and supply side, the ministry said in a statement.

In January, the core CPI index, which strips out volatile fresh food and energy prices, was up 0.52% from a year earlier, versus a forecast for a 0.37% rise.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/22 ... s-forecast

[PeteC]

This development may knock a point or so off of February.

Food prices in decline as festival ends

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/22 ... tival-ends

[buksida]

Galloping inflation hits recovery hope
The Commerce Ministry expects headline inflation in March to stay at a high level, driven by a rise in energy prices after the cost of fuel and electricity accelerated in February at the fastest pace since 2008.

Ronnarong Phoolpipat, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, said yesterday the prospects of higher inflation are likely to increase prices this month, particularly for consumer goods including prepared food, seasonings and condiments.

Another factor is the low inflation base at the beginning of 2021, he said.

Mr Ronnarong said falling prices of certain items such as pork, fresh vegetables and fruit, as well as the government's measures to lower the cost of living, should keep the inflation rate within an appropriate range.

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https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/22 ... overy-hope

Thai Inflation Surges to Highest Since 2008 on Fuel, Food Costs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... food-costs

[Dannie Boy]

It’s not just Thailand, every country in the world is facing huge inflationary pressures following the war in Ukraine, on top of everything else that was going on. It doesn’t matter which way you look, the outlook isn’t good!!

[pharvey]

It’s not just Thailand, every country in the world is facing huge inflationary pressures following the war in Ukraine, on top of everything else that was going on. It doesn’t matter which way you look, the outlook isn’t good!!

Sadly, I couldn't agree more....

[buksida]

SCB sees stagflation for Thailand economy
Thailand's economy has gone into stagflation because of a fragile recovery and surging price hikes, says an economist at the Economic Intelligence Center (EIC), a research unit under Siam Commercial Bank (SCB).

The EIC downgraded its 2022 economic growth forecast for Thailand to 2.7% from 3.2%. The revision was attributed to the Russia-Ukraine war, which sent energy and commodity prices soaring.

Thailand's annual average headline inflation rate is expected to jump to a 14-year high of 4.9% this year, rising significantly from a previous forecast of 1.6%, said Yunyong Thaicharoen, SCB's chief wholesale banking officer and an economist at the EIC.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/22 ... nd-economy

[buksida]

March inflation beats forecast, still at 13-year high
Headline consumer price index (CPI) jumped by a higher-than-expected 5.73% in March from a year earlier, the fastest pace in 13 years, driven by stronger prices of goods and energy, the Commerce Ministry said on Tuesday.

That compared with a forecast for a rise of 5.60% in a Reuters poll and followed February's 5.28% increase, breaching the top end of the Bank of Thailand's target range of 1% to 3% for a third straight month.

The ministry raised its forecast for headline inflation to 4% to 5% this year from a previous estimate of 0.7% to 2.4%, Ronnarong Phoolpipat, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, told a news conference. In 2008, inflation was 5.5%.

Government measures including price controls on essential goods, a cap on fuel prices, and subsidies would help slow a rise in inflation, he said.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/22 ... -year-high

Yeah ... I know its happening everywhere. Knocking the tax off the goods and energy bills would help a little, but then where would they get the money to buy their subs?