Major Economic Issues For Thailand

[caller]

And of courase this data comes from outside of Thailand.

If you haven't already done so, worth reading is Chartchai Parasuk's article in the BP yesterday, about these non performing loans and the current and future risk to the Thai economy - it's not rosy!

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opi ... ans-fiddle

[buksida]

The National Credit Bureau reported that automobile loan default rates were quickly rising and as much as 1 million cars could be repossessed within four months.

Yep, again no surprise that it is car loans causing most of the problems. A strange Thai phenomenon is people wanting/having cars/trucks/SUVs that are worth more than their houses. Its another aspect of the 'show show' society that we live in I guess.

Thailand does not only have a high level of household debt, but the structure of the debt is the worst in the world. In most countries, 60% to 90% of household debt is comprised of housing loans which are long-term in nature. And, most importantly, fully collateralised.

Only 4.7 trillion baht of the 15.1 trillion baht of Thai household debt comes from housing loans, or about 30%. Taking the medium-term auto loans of 2.6 trillion baht out, 7.8 trillion baht of household debt, or about half of the portfolio, is short-term and not collateralised.

[caller]

Freelance economist Chartchai Parasuk's latest doom laden article on the state of the Thai economy was released earlier. It's interesting how the stats and data he provides never seem to make it into the mainstream English papers here.

Why do I smell tom yum kung cooking?

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opi ... g-cooking-

[Motyduke]

Really good article !

[buksida]

Good piece, plenty of catalysts to kick the economy into recession. A decade of military rule and a pandemic hasn't helped, I'm just amazed it hasn't happened sooner!

[caller]

Thai NPLs soar to new levels, but not a problem states the chief of the national credit bureau. But overall, the economy is still improving(!)

https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/202 ... g-further/

[Benroon]

Years ago I tried to enquire as to where all the repossessions end up - as in any country I was met with several brick walls, people not wanting others to enjoy the benefits I guess. What was interesting was we went to all the main banks and they all told us they don't do car loans and only knew of one bank that did (can't remember which one it was now)

So 1,000,000 cars eh? Thats gonna need a hell of a hiding place! Where do they go?

[buksida]

Industrial sentiment at 10-month low
Industrial sentiment has fallen to a 10-month low, dented by declining exports and uncertainty over the formation of a new government after May’s election, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) said on Wednesday.

The FTI said its industrial sentiment index in July fell to 92.3 from 94.1 in June.

Softer global demand and a slower-than-expected economy in China have pulled exports down for nine consecutive months, FTI chairman Kriengkrai Theinnukul told a news briefing.

Political uncertainty, with parties still attempting to form a government three months after the election, also weighed on sentiment, he said.

The FTI index that projects confidence over the next three months also declined, he added.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/ge ... -month-low

Meanwhile the central bankers are still claiming everything is rosy ...

[caller]

well, economist Chartchai Parasuk's latest article has been released today. And once again, not only is it educational and informative, but is out of kilter with everything the Thai Government and BOT seem to be doing to improve the faltering economy. Which, lest we forget, is a junta legacy.

What is worrying is that everything Chatchai predicts, comes to pass. At some stage, if change doesn't happen, and that will not go down well with the populace, the economy will fall over a cliff edge.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opi ... -much-debt

[dundrillin]

And of courase this data comes from outside of Thailand.

If you haven't already done so, worth reading is Chartchai Parasuk's article in the BP yesterday, about these non performing loans and the current and future risk to the Thai economy - it's not rosy!

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opi ... ans-fiddle

There seems to be a very large number of used cars for sale in Buriram at the moment perhaps a result of inability to keep up payments. However there seems to be a lot of new cars being sold esp GWM and MG

[Dannie Boy]

Definitely sounds worrying - a bleak outlook is being very positive!!

[caller]

Independent economist Chartchai Parasuk's bi-weekly column, reaches new levels today. He openly accuses the Bank Of Thailand of lying.

It's more doom and gloom piled on more doom and gloom and completely at odds with the official narrative. It does appear there is no money left in the kitty after all the junta's spending on handouts, giveaways and everything else.

Worth a read, as ever.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opi ... 14-billion

[buksida]

Thailand remains the most income-unequal country in the East Asia Pacific region, with half of its wealth concentrated in the top 10%, according to the World Bank's 'Bridging the Gap: Inequality and Jobs in Thailand' report.

The country's income inequality, measured by the Gini coefficient at 43.3%, ranks it as the 13th most unequal among 63 nations.

The World Bank highlights early-life disparities in Thailand, emphasizing that the primary contributors to income inequality in the country are disparities based on household heads’ occupations and education level. Regional gaps are also pronounced, as evidenced by Bangkok's per capita GDP being over 6.5 times higher than that of the northeast region, which registers the lowest GDP per capita in the country.

405473213_786170683520855_3516342948460367754_n.jpg (189.81 KiB) Viewed 27062 times

Source: Thai Enquirer
Full report: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/th ... n-thailand

[buksida]

The World Bank has downgraded its forecast for Thailand's economic growth in 2023 to 2.5% from the previous estimate of 3.4%, which was made in October. Additionally, the bank revised its forecast for 2024 to 3.2% from the earlier projection of 3.5%.

The bank attributed the lower-than-expected 1.5% growth in Q3 of 2023 to weak external demand and reported that foreign tourist arrivals only reached 75% of pre-pandemic levels in September. Despite this, the government's measures to reduce living costs and boost private consumption continue to provide support to the economy.

The bank highlighted the slow recovery in Thailand compared to its peers, such as Malaysia and the Philippines, citing the country's heavy reliance on tourism and trade.

Source: Thai Enquirer

[buksida]

Thailand faces 20 years of low growth
The World Bank expects Thailand's potential growth to be the lowest among Asean economies over the next 20 years because of the country's ageing demographics and a slowdown in private investment.

The potential growth of Thailand's economy is expected to be around 3% for the next 20 years, the lowest level in the region, without economic reform.

The low level is attributed to an ageing society, an easing of private investment and reduced labour productivity, said Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, the World Bank's senior economist for Thailand, at the bank's seminar to launch the Thailand Economic Monitor report on Thursday.

The World Bank forecasts Thai GDP growth for 2024 and 2025 at 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively, the lowest rate in Asean. The growth should be paced by a goods export recovery, tourism, and sustained private consumption.

Thailand's economy is somewhat reliant on the tourism industry, contributing 13% of GDP, according to the report.

Mr Kiatipong said Thailand's lagging recovery diverged from its Asean peers, with gaps equivalent to 7-10% of GDP during the post-pandemic period from 2022.

Global headwinds caused a sluggish recovery of the Thai economy and widened the recovery gap with peers, he said.

Thailand's foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows contracted in 2020 compared with the growth of regional peers including Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam.

Net FDI inflows improved over 2021-2022, but remained behind Malaysia and Vietnam.

https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/th ... r-AA1lCqpT