Yes, it is a long read. I read the whole of it. A little is out of date and some parts contradict others.prcscct wrote:Read the below. A long read and a bit complicated but has the facts on where the world was and where it is now.
It does agree on the falling birthrate:
Europe – 2.66 to 1.41
North America – 3.47 to 1.99
Oceania – 3.87 to 2.30
Central America – 6.38 to 2.66
South America – 5.75 to 2.49
Asia (excluding Middle East) – 5.85 to 2.43
Middle East & North Africa – 6.99 to 3.37
Sub-Saharan Africa – 6.7 to 5.53
Excluding the observed reversal in fertility decrease for high development, the projected world number of children born per woman for 2050 would be around 2.05. Only the Middle East & North Africa (2.09) and Sub-Saharan Africa (2.61) would then have numbers greater than 2.05.
The replacement birthrate (static population) is said to be 2.1, accounting for children that die before adulthood. The birthrate will continue to fall which eventually will lead to a population shrinkage. Most of the overpopulation today is because of the increased ageing population. The younger population is much smaller therefore causing a shrinkage in the future. China has now scrapped it's 'one child' policy but it's not expected to affect the birth rate by very much and they see a shrinkage of the population by 2050, peaking at around 2030.
In 2013, a relaxation of policy allowed over 12 million couples to apply to have a second child. Only about 12 percent of eligible couples applied. When the one-child policy ends in 2016, most couples will be restricted to two children. But that may not address all of the issues. After decades of the one-child policy, coupled with new economic and social pressures to succeed, many couples have decided to stop with one child, or to not have any at all. So with a national birth rate well below replacement level of 2.1 and some urban birth rates under 1, China faces a new challenge. How do they provide for an older population while also encouraging younger residents to have more children?
The increase in population is almost entirely created by an aging population.
There are many more articles that contradict the ones referenced in that particular Wikipedia entry. How would you limit population growth? Apart from Africa and the middle east, controlling birthrate is already happening naturally. Maybe bring in a forced euthanasia once you reach a certain age!!!