crystal ball time please

[matthew80]

Ok. Need you to cast you eyes into the future please, if you would be so knd. I plan to quit my canada teaching job at fifty-five, with a pension of sorts, and move to thailnd to continue teaching. Have fallen in love with hua hin, and would like to make my base there. from all I heard on these
forums, the country, and hua hin in partuclar, is experience growing pains. If you had a crystal ball, and implimnenting your considerable knowldege of governet trends,,,what KIND of country/weclome, opportunities should I prepapre myself to see. In brief, hwo much are things exeected to change in all reas of life, thinking an eight to te year laspe before I bomb in Bust guess please, and greatly appreciated.

[Wanderlust]

That is a tough question indeed. One of the key variables in that time span is if the current King is still here, as he is the glue that keeps this country together, and I don't have the same confidence in his likely successor. Another relative unknown is the political situation; is Thaksin going to try and make a comeback? Who will fill the power vacuum? What I think I can say is that the Thai people will still be generally welcoming, although there may be a slowly increasing intolerance of foreigners amongst certain groups, depending somewhat on the economic prosperity of the country. In Hua Hin and Thailand there will still be a demand for teachers, but whether the regulations will allow any foriegners to work here then is unknown; certainly the trend has been to make it harder for foriegners to live and work here, both in getting work permits and the financial impositions of long stay visas, as well as the apparent clampdowns on foriegners wanting to own a property.
In terms of personal finances, I would make sure that your pension has plenty of allowance for inflation, and don't base your economy on prices in Thailand now as prices do seem to be rising steadily on certain items, such as fuel.
To be honest I think you would do better to ask the same question in a couple of years time, as there are too many uncertainties right now, both within Thailand as well as globally to be able to make any really meaningful comment or analysis. The only sure thing that I can say is that I will always be better off here than in my home country (UK), but that doesn't mean it might not be better elsewhere. I know many people in Thailand are considering some of the nearby countries such as Malaysia, Cambodia and Vietnam because of the visa and other changes in recent years. Good luck with your plans anyway, and I hope my gazing into the future has been of some help.

[The understudy]

[quote="matthew80"]Ok. Need you to cast you eyes into the future please, if you would be so knd. I plan to quit my canada teaching job at fifty-five, with a pension of sorts, and move to thailnd to continue teaching. Have fallen in love with hua hin, and would like to make my base there. from all I heard on these
forums, the country, and hua hin in partuclar, is experience growing pains. If you had a crystal ball, and implimnenting your considerable knowldege of governet trends,,,what KIND of country/weclome, opportunities should I prepapre myself to see. In brief, hwo much are things exeected to change in all reas of life, thinking an eight to te year laspe before I bomb in Bust guess please, and greatly appreciated. [/quote]

Well Matthew if I can look into the Future of Thailand in Particular Hau Hin right now I would say the oultlook is blurry to be optimistic about this. Like the speaker Mr. Wanderlust said before me "there are too many uncertainties right now, both within Thailand as well as globally to be able to make any really meaningful comment or analysis.".
as for Thailand I'm pretty sure that it's welcomeing atitute will always be, But we Thais have to get off the Bad Habit of taking advantage, economically and tourism wise. We should make it easy for Western Foreigners to settle and work here in Thailand but also being hard on those poeple who came into the country Illegally. As Politically concerned the Millltary installed Interim Governmetn has Promised General Elections in one years time. Former Thaksin is triying to make a comeback,
For me I'm a Thai but now working in abroad with an education Background of being in Hua Hin studying @ an International University for 5 years and during tmy five years stay I and many fellow friends had fallen in Love with Hua Hin which I also call "Chill Out Mansion!" You can try to apply @ my old University which I Graduated or other Universities in the Vicinity. just pm Me to find out more!
All in all Ass I look onto the Future of Thailand and Globally I would like to quote a Phrase by Jedi Master Yoda which discribes the Situation best. "Clouded his Future is!"

Your's The Understudy!!!

[lomuamart]

Good replies, so far.
To add my tuppence worth, I'd say be and think mobile. I hope it never happens, but you have to think about options all the time in this part of the world and I mean being prepared to up and leave.
The longer you live here, the harder it is to move on - wife, children, house etc etc.
Teaching jobs have been and will be hard hit by the current set of regulations, so make sure you're properly qualified and ready to put up with b######.
Personally, I don't see easy times ahead. I just don't think that the authorities here have the best interests of their country to heart - I hope I'm proved wrong, but I'm not going to bet on it.
In the meantime, I'll continue living here with my wife, but I constantly tell her that we must be prepared to move on to another country at short notice. I hope she's taking notice.
If the above sounds negative, it's not supposed to be - just realistic.

[Kraka's Dad]

Just one small query.
All the posters on this thread seem to be men and the topic is unisex so why is this in Womens Issues ??

[DawnHRD]

Why are we in woman's issues? Are we women more prescient? If so, I'm about to prove that theory wrong! I have no idea what to expect in the future here. As mentioned before, who is in charge, both within the monarchy and the government will probably make a big difference. I don't have a plan B like Lomu, if the wheels come off, I'm up a dirty brown creek without an implement to power a boat by. No, correct that, not me, I can move, but my son & my dogs.

I hope that things will not get any worse than they are now. That those staying here honestly & contributing to society (financially or in other ways) will be allowed to stay. I think HH itself will continue to grow, whether we like it or not. I hope the people will remain as friendly and open as they are now & that we don't get too many expats that think they are living in a smaller, sunnier & cheaper version of their own home town But as for crystal ball? No, what I have is more of a stale fortune cookie!

[STEVE G]

I think that the old ex-pat maxim of never investing in Asia anymore than you are prepared to lose is as relevant as ever in the present political climate.

[lomuamart]

I think that the old ex-pat maxim of never investing in Asia anymore than you are prepared to lose is as relevant as ever in the present political climate.

Spot on.
I was going to go on a rant before - so I will do so now.
It took my Thai wife three days to get her visa to the UK. That was multi-entry, valid for six months. During that time she was not allowed to work. However, if it was ever in our plans to go back to the UK, then she'd apply for a two year "setlement Visa". I'm certain she'd have no problems with that either.
So, where does that leave me?
Nowhere, is the answer.
I love this country and its people, but until they treat me as a "human being", I just can't ever think about investment here.
Som nam na - and probably back to us as well. At least we're prepared for it, I hope.
Rant over. Sorry.

[lomuamart]

And BTW, Dawn, we don't have a "plan B".
But we are thinking about it.

[lomuamart]

Hope I've done the right thing.
Moved your post to a more general section, OP.

[pookie]

Unless you are financially secure for the rest of your life when the time comes to settle in Thailand, then its, frankly, going to be an uphill struggle just to survive.
Its NEVER been a good idea to rely on an income from working in Thailand......not in the past, the present, or the future. The culture doesnt allow it, for one thing, and the further up the social strata you go, the more resentment to falangs you will find. It seems endemic to them that we are, at best "mere falangs" and, at worst, a threat to the Thai illuninati's stranglehold on the Thai people themselves.
As has been said, you should try to be in a position where you can just "up sticks" and move to another country in the region at the drop of a hat
Too many "big noses" make the mistake in thinking that they can make a "contribution" to Thailand. This is NEVER welcomed.... only your cash is!!!!
The ideal "falang" to them are planeload after planeload of thrillseekers landing at the airport with sackfulls of foreign currency, and going on the rampage for 2 - 3 weeks, then leaving with empty pockets, suitcases full of replica designerwear, and an intent to go back home, start saving for the next trip to the !Land Of Smiles"

Pookie

[DawnHRD]

Too many "big noses" make the mistake in thinking that they can make a "contribution" to Thailand. This is NEVER welcomed.... only your cash is!!!!

Pookie

I'll just get me coat... Oh, maybe not. Thank you for your insight Pookie, but, really you have no idea. I'm not going to get into this in a public forum, but if you do good things here, people do notice. Some very prominent people in HH have noticed and commended us for what we do. Only today, I have also had about 4 Thais in the street ask what I & my senior volunteer were doing when catching street dogs for treatment & saying how good we are for helping "Thai" dogs. Yeah, it may not get me a visa (although it has till now), but people do notice when the "big noses" are trying to help out & it is welcomed. And how much will your contribution be welcomed when you come? Oh, sorry, I forgot, CASH!!!

[matthew80]

Thanks for all your replies to my question! I apologize for the horrible spelling and for placing the original post in the wrong section. I had taken a sleeping pill twenty minutes before writing my post! OMG! You don't realize how truly out of control you r are!!!! Hilarious! Again, all comments greatly appreciated. "Don't take drugs and post"

[sargeant]

I will put in my penneth and probably upset a few peops in doing so.

All of the views and guesses given so far are extremely relevant and i agree with virtually all of them however i am prepared to guess a little further.

!. by 30th dec 2006 the 30 day visa loophole will be closed
2 The 90 day non O visa will require proof of offshore income
3 The 1 year non O visa will also require proof of offshore income
4 Business visas will mean just that non trading businesses will cease
5 Property bought on company route will require business visas
6 Marriages of convenience will be stopped
7 Marriage visas will require proof of offshore income
8 retirement visas will require proof of offshore income

These are my guesses for the end line based on the present trend some small print some rumour and some common sense

What is going to happen to peops already having baught on the company route i am going to guess way out there but i think if they are not trading and they dont have business visas the freehold will be changed to leasehold IF so property prices will plummet

All of this will take a long time 5 maybe 10 years but in those years many falangs are going to discover the Thais are not stupid and the Falangs arent so clever
Those that have come here for the correct reasons will in general be OK i do however as i have said before on numerous occassions fear there will be collateral damage

The political situation is a total lottery we could still be under a military government in 2 years time as they get to like having there cake and eating it and there are serious divisions in the country at present on both sides

It seems to me that the government is trying to get rid of the dirth of visa lawbreakers and the dodgy falangs that have arrived in large numbers over the last few years and the growth of falang ghettos and until that situation is to their satisfaction it will remain difficult for falangs

So do your homework jump their jumps and crawl through their hoops and i am sure you will be fine but dont cut any corners or think you are clever or it may come back and bite you the LOS is a great place to live

Finally Dawn i agree and disagree with you Lomu is right. When i lived in the uk i arranged for over 150 thai students to study in the uk the embassey sent thais to me to do visas,tax returns, find accomodation, find them work and even sent one young lady to have her pregnancy terminated they spent copious hours telling me what a friend of thailand i was but when it came for me to come here to live BUGGERALL help from them (1 Year non O max)I do however hope they make an exception for you

[lomuamart]

In reply to your points, sergeant.
1. I'm not sure that there will be any further tightening of this. They've already done it and it remains to be seen what the impact will be. That, as you've said, will be during January 2007 as many teachers and dive instructors etc will have to get a proper visa or leave for 3 months.
2. That is a possibility, although neighbouring countries are mainly only giving this single 90 day entry now to force us to demonstrate funds later during that 90 day period for our extensions. As you can get a Tourist visa easily enough for 60+30 days (some have said it's a straight 90 now, I'm not sure), without showing funds, I think it's likely that the Thais will be happy for single entry non o's to be issued on this basis as well. After all, you do have to show a marriage certificate, wife's ID etc etc when applying for it anyway. Your dosh comes afterwards.
3. That's a definite possibility and one I've thought about before. It would make "sense" bearing in mind the current visa climate. I got my multi-entry from Hull in September and you now only have to guarantee yourself by signing a piece of paper that you've got funds. No proof required.
4&5. I've got no idea. Not qualified to comment.
6. Immigration can and do sometimes visit your residence whilst the "under consideration" period is running. It's likely that will happen more to ensure the marriage isn't a sham.
7. They do now. As of Oct 1st, new applicants must show 40k offshore income a month. 400k in a Thai bank no longer qualifies you, unless you're grandfathered in from before Oct 1st.
8. I'm not sure. Never been down this route. Not old enough - yet.

So, in the main I'd agree with you. However, one thing I have learnt during my years here is not to try and outguess the Thais. You just never can tell what's going to happen.