crystal ball time please

Hua Hin general discussion, observations and chat. Hua Hin topics that don't really fit anywhere else.
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HansMartin
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Post by HansMartin »

My observations of the future, based a lot on comments from my Thai wife:

1. The current king will be the last unless the title can pass to one of the princesses - the prince is not as revered as his sisters.

2. The Thai have had a great deal of freedom and democracy since 1933 -- granted it may meet our Western perception, but they are proud of it and will retain it.

3. Land is important and they are not thrilled about massive farang ownership. You can buy property with your Thai family, but don't get greedy

4. Enforcement of current laws will become stricter, but what country isn't doing that (we are building a fence across our border with Mexico for Christ's sake !!!)

5. Much as I love Hua Hin it is overbuilt, with plenty of second rate properties and sleazy weasels that are trying their best to seperate you from your $$$ -- rent first and get a true picture of what is happpening before jumping in. There are plenty of honest Thai/farang, but you have to search them.

6. The big question for me is where is the bhat headed relative to the US$. When we were there last year it was 41.2 to the dollar. It is now 36.5 --ugh. Where is it heaed?
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Post by pookie »

I'll just get me coat... Oh, maybe not. Thank you for your insight Pookie, but, really you have no idea. I'm not going to get into this in a public forum, but if you do good things here, people do notice. Some very prominent people in HH have noticed and commended us for what we do. Only today, I have also had about 4 Thais in the street ask what I & my senior volunteer were doing when catching street dogs for treatment & saying how good we are for helping "Thai" dogs. Yeah, it may not get me a visa (although it has till now), but people do notice when the "big noses" are trying to help out & it is welcomed. And how much will your contribution be welcomed when you come? Oh, sorry, I forgot, CASH!!!
Well, everything i have said has been said before on this thread itself, even by fellow moderators.......only i am the type to call it as it is, not with "embelishments" or as it should be, or viewing things through rose tinted glasses.
You, yourself even admit to being on shaky ground if (shouldnt that be "when"?) the wheels fall off, as you put it?
The OP asked for opinions, and he got mine, based on both working and living in Thailand for long periods. And as far as me "having no idea" then let me tell you a bit of background before you make any more assumptions
Up to about 6 years ago, i did business in Thailand, ranging from dive shops, through to shrimp farming, then onto dog breeding and lastly in the diamond trade in Chantaburi. All of those i managed to make a living out of,though nowhere near comparible to what a Thai would make putting in the same time and effort. And by taking that same attitude that i made my post with, managed to escape with both my cash and sanity just before MY wheels came off those. No, i didnt get ripped off by the Thais, but thats because i didnt feel they were willing to accept me for what i did......more a case of what i was !!!!
John Lennon wrote a song called "Woman Is The Nigger Of The World"(sorry if the title offends anyone, btw) substitute the word "Falang" for "woman" and the word "Thailand" for "The World" So you get "Falang Is The Nigger Of Thailand"
Now go look up the lyrics. Then tell me i a wrong in what i say
Its OK saying " Some very prominent people in HH have noticed and commended us for what we do", but do those same prominent people make it any easier for you regarding visa runs? Or are you on the treadmill of running to Ranong every 90 days like all the rest of the "great unwashed"?
Its ok you getting a buzz from being told "how good we are for helping "Thai" dogs.(notice the inference there?.........THAI dogs?)
All they are doing is patting the falang on the head and saying "good Falang, nice Falang...........now run along Falang!!"
Was there any offers to HELP you in your endevour....like running the shop, or is that still under threat of closure, cause you are having trouble getting anybody (Falang OR Thai) to staff it on a regular enough basis to sustain a decent living standard?
The truth not only hurts, but comes in 3 stages...........denial, anger and then............ quiet acceptance
Its obvious which stage you are at, but, instead of "shooting the messenger", try removing those blinkers for a moment and look around you and see what REALLY happening.
Remember, in Thailand you'll never have any real business, legal or ownership rights. But Thais can go to our countries and buy and own anything they can get their hands on. Once they get a visa to stay (and, yes, its a hard thing to get, but not impossible) they can work, get social benefits, free health care etc, etc. Once the required visa is issued, they dont have to keep running out of the country every 90 days like you and all the rest are doing, and looking over your shoulder for the next "wheel to start falling off"

Dont get me wrong.......Thailand is still my preffered retirement place (though its getting harder to justify that preference, tbh), but, as far as working for a DECENT living, forgetaboutit is my honest advice to the OP.

Pookie
The views expressed here are my own.......and bloody good they are too !!!! :)
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Post by DawnHRD »

Pookie,
You obviously feel that the Thai people are against us farangs. I'll admit that I find many of the past governments rulings xenophobic, but I certainly don't get that feeling from the average Thai that I meet.

And to answer your questions, yes, we have had help from those prominent Thais. They pulled as many strings as they could for us, as a dog center, not for me personally (why should they?) If it wasn't for those Thais we wouldn't exist as a center now. And, no, the shop still isn't fully staffed, but as many Thais volunteer in there as farangs. Which I personally find fantastic, as they volunteer to help in the day when they have night jobs etc.

I certainly don't feel I am painting a rosy picture of Thailand. I feel very pessimistic about my own future, but I find your previous statement about too many bignoses thinking they contribute and Thais not welcoming help only cash ,offensive, both to those of us who get off our backsides to try to do something and to the Thais who appreciate it. And as for me geeting a "buzz" from Thais "patting me on the head", please don't ever malign my motives for doing what I do again. If I was doing this for praise, from anyone, I'd have given up a long, long time ago.

Sorry for hi-jacking the thread, Matthew80. That's it from me. Hope you get some more helpful answers :cheers:
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Post by sargeant »

Lomu i take all your points and agree it could go exactely as you say but i was maybe overguessing however what makes my guesss go the way they do is
1 It does not make sense that you can own a company and not trade
2 it is illogical to form a company and not have a business operating
3 it is totally illogical to own a company and not need a business visa

My guesses come from what is probably somewhere most falangs here dont
I believe and have strong anecdotal evidence that the visa shakeup came into being firstly at the behest/threat from USA in its so called war on terror
I also however believe that certain factions in government (not elected MPs) see a large takeover of thailands main areas by falang (Hua Hin has always been the rich BKK thais weekend retreat) and are in a position to use the clampdown to get rid of what they see as a bad influence on thai life and thus be able to say we are doing it for the war on terror typically thai
I dont see them doing it on a one off large scale change of laws just a steady slow thai style tightening of the screw a small change here a small change there
In many ways i agree with them and only wish we had done it in the UK in the 50/60s there is however a fundemental difference we invited the immigrants to the UK as cheap labour the thais invited us here as tourists
and its that fundemental difference which colours my guesses

Having said all that you are quite right never try to outguess the outguessers the thais will still do it their way

Hans Martin i think its where is the dollar going against all other currencies
which is the point

Pookie lighten up old son not all thais are solely cash orientated as i said in my previous post i got no help from those i helped but then i have a fellow country man in my street who is even worse and there are a lot of ar@#$ole& in town now mostly under 50 selling property and lying and conning left right and centre and doing it to falangs so for me its cum see cum sah
I appreciate Dawns work even though we may disagree on the end result At least she is doing something, and i have never met her yet But i do hope she isnt expecting good thais on charging white horses to come to her aid ( i hope one does for her & her son) because i very much doubt it with regards to the dogs
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Post by caller »

So, whats the equation with whats here and the thread about Soi6?

Do they equate?

Property prices are rising, seemingly, but the negative vibes from those that, on the whole, are "living in HH/LOS, as opposed to retiring there(?) appears to differ?

What does that say?

Live quietly, don't upset the apple cart, contribute fiscally, but don't be too greedy, don't be too pushy, or even visual, unless you can seriously contribute financially and/or provide employment for Thais - and all will be okay?

Sounds like a bluepint for a lot of places, wonder if my homeland might take it up?
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Post by sargeant »

Caller
The thread on Soi 6 its just one of many about property and prices
In numerous posts the point is raised that the Thais dont want large or to that matter small scale ownership of thai land by falangs
The thais are quite rightly alarmed at the even in my mind obscene and ludicrous price rises in property in Hua Hin in particular
I was (long before i came to this forum)Predicting something was going to break, the war on terror has given the thai authorities the ideal opportunity to do it and blame someone else (Not us Guv)
However i agree because as you discern there are those retired here and those living here a lot of whom are working minus work permits doing business without proper business visas and generaly breaking the Visa rules and doing it openly and loudly
So yes the retired folks in general are coming from a different angle to the living and working brigade. Most retirees follow the rules a lot of the living here battallion dont

The thais are not stupid maybe they have seen what immigration does to a country and learnt

Palestine------- isrealy immigrants
South Africa------- Dutch Booer immigrants
Apache------- european immigrants
comanche------- ditto etc
UK------ indian pakistani west indian immigrants
germany------- turkish immigrants
france surely thats enough reason

its enough to make me xenophobic

As for quiet dont upset the apple cart Bang On we are in their country and we should do it their way and not be surprised at the consequences when we dont.
In a few individual cases it will be unfair, but laws and rules are made to curb the wrongdoers in the most part, and all govts make laws based on sledgehammer as against scalpal

The original post was to guess the future,and for anyone to paint a rosy everything is fine hello whats your name where you come from handsome man picture would be in my opinion bordering on criminal

The bottom of my post carries the slogan "A guest of Thailand" and after 22 years i still consider myself "A guest of Thailand" and very very thankfull i am too
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Post by Wanderlust »

sargeant,
Although I generally agree with what you have said in your last post, there are a couple of things I would like to pick up on. Firstly, it seems that there is a general assumption, not just by you, that a majority of the working expats are doing so without the proper permit, while I have neither heard or seen any evidence of that, just the occasional bar owner being 'done' for serving a drink. My general perception is that the majority do jump through the hoops and get their work permits or proper necessary paperwork. Secondly, although I don't think the Thais are stupid, I also don't think they ever look at other countries and learn any lessons from them; they are generally poorly educated about the rest of the world and it's goings on, so your matching up of their immigration policy to the experiences in the rest of the world is extremely wide of the mark, as well as being a poor comparison to make anyway - farangs are not one group from one country, and are not arriving here to live in anywhere close to the numbers your examples did, nor with the same agendas. Equally not all your examples were bad for the host country and I can guarantee that among all the groups you have listed that it was a small minority who exploited and killed their 'hosts'; I think you should be careful what you say on the issue of immigrants on this forum. I firmly believe that the world will be a much better place when there is more and easier movement between countries, as the issue of where you are from ceases to become important, and there would be far less reason to fear people from other countries.
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Post by sargeant »

Wanderlust the word majority is not what i said and never have but i do say a significant number. Why do i think that
a. I know people who are doing just that
b. Tourist, non imm O and retirement visas do not allow work ( I am not quoting marriage visas because i am not 100%sure but i think not) and that is the majority of visas
That only leaves non b and workpermits
I have also read the work and businesses allowed to falangs and the work that isnt and i see occurrences where they are being contravened
I totally agree with you that most do play it by the rules but unfortunately as you will agree it is always the significant minority of a@#$h%$es that bugger it up for everybody else
As for thais being poorly educated about the rest of the world please wake up i me umwah alone all by myself condeo in 4 years arranged for 150plus thais to study in england and they were the upper middle class who are informing their upper middle class friends of what they see and percieve in foreign countries and they are the people that rule thailand to say nothing of ex pat wives coming home??so i dont accept your wide of the mark remark at all
Its obviously in the eye of the beholder as to whether it was bad for the host countries but i do suggest i will bet if you ask any ethnic from the countries i mentioned (and there are many more ) a large %age wouldnt agree with you
As for the farangs not coming from one country i agree thats obvious just count the different countries residential areas in hua hin
I have nothing against free movement but i will put a huge rider to it "as long as the hosts are comfortable with it and as long as it isnt at breakneck speed and maintains the hosts culture and they obey the law
Your dream of people being unafraid of immigration is i am sorry to say a very very long way off

Just one last example USA Mexico
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Post by sargeant »

Hi caller something in your post kept niggling at the back of my head so this morning as i do virtually all the time i went back over the threads and found your last post and reread it

Live quietly, dont upset the apple cart, contribute fiscally but dont be to greedy dont be to pushy

I agree with that totally but i would use one word

integrate
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Post by sargeant »

After the incidents last night i think that it would be a good idea to retune ones balls and have another gaze into the future it is too early for me to prognosticate i am gonna have a thunk and will post later as to how far DOWN the frequency scale i tune my balls :shock: :shock: :( :(
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